Rangers vs Guardians Picks and Predictions: Can Quantrill Lead Cleveland to W?

The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians get going in a three-game series on Monday. 

The Guardians have passed the White Sox in the division and have won six of their last 10. Over the weekend, they took two of three from an improved Baltimore Orioles team and arrive for today's matchup at 24-25.

Texas has been in the midst of a slump. Although they're 5-5 in its last 10 games, the Rangers have lost three of four and enter today's matchup with a 25-28 record.

Find out who wins in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Guardians on Monday, June 6.

Rangers vs Guardians odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this meeting were released last night. The Guardians opened up as a modest -120 favorite. Since then, the Rangers have taken a bit of money, and Cleveland has fallen to -112 in some spots. Currently, Texas is returning as a +100 underdog in most locations.

The total opened up at 8.5 and has since risen to 9. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rangers vs Guardians predictions

• Prediction: Guardians F5 +0.5 (-140)
• Prediction: F5 Under 5.5 (-152)
• Best bet: Gray Under 4.5 Ks + No Run First Inning (+252)

Picks made on 6/6/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Rangers vs Guardians game info

• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Monday, June 6, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports Southwest

Rangers vs Guardians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jon Gray (1-2, 4.83 ERA): Seemingly out of nowhere, Gray was impressive in his last outing. The 30-year-old went seven innings, giving up just one earned run against the Rays. I have to believe that was more outliner than anything else, though. Outside of that performance, it's been a pretty shaky start to the season for Gray. He gave up 14 runs in just 25 innings of work in May. Gray is a fast-ball first pitcher. He's thrown it more this season than last and had a bit more success with it. However, this season, his biggest issue has been inducing soft contact with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom 25% of qualified pitchers.

Cal Quantrill (2-3, 3.52 ERA): Quantrill has regressed this season from last year, but in reality, this is probably more of who he is. His actual ERA was nearly two total runs lower than his expected ERA two seasons before this. This year, those numbers appear to be more in line. A big reason for his drop-off is his groundball rate has fallen from 44% to 38%. Teams are picking up his breaking pitches and putting them in the air more. In May, he gave up just 13 earned runs in over 30 innings of work. His last outing was solid, going six innings against the Royals and giving up three earned runs on six hits.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rangers: No injuries to report.
Guardians: Austin Hedges C (Out), Franmill Reyes CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1 in Rangers' last nine road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Guardians

Rangers vs Guardians picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

Cleveland has a strikeout rate of 14.9% in Progressive Field so far this season. That's pretty amazing and easily the best mark of any team in MLB. In a pitching matchup, I view it reasonably close to even; that's the most significant part of this handicap and ultimately why I'll be riding with the Guardians today. 

Gray relies on the strikeout a lot. It's the bread and butter of what he does at the plate. The problem in this matchup? There may not be a better team in baseball at making contact. Cleveland is getting contact on 85% of pitches in the zone and contact on 65% of pitches outside the zone. Both of those are first in baseball, and both go up when they play at home. 

The above is an issue for Gray because when he's not striking out batters, the struggles begin. He had 12 strikeouts against the Rays, and coincidentally, that was also a start where he gave up just one earned run. The reverse has followed too. Generally speaking, when he's had fewer Ks per batter, he's surrendered more hits. 

This isn't the most confident view, but I believe it's the right side. The Guardians don't do an excellent job of making hard contact, but Gray has allowed hard contact to virtually every team.

Which side wins out in an exercise of futility? I think it's Cleveland. My projections agree and see the most significant edge in the first five market. That's where I'll grab them.

Prediction: Guardians first five innings +0.5 (-140 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I'm going to fade some of the sharp action and roll with the Under here.

As I talked about at the onset, the hitters against the Guardians vs. Gray is kind of an exercise in futility. I expect him to give up a few runs but by no means do I expect it to be a blow-up.

It's a weird instance where I don't have much faith in either of these pitchers, but they have good matchups. The same can be said for Quantrill against the Rangers batters, whose best attribute is inducing soft contact.  

While he's an average pitcher, he has a hard-hit rate that ranks right up there with some of the best in baseball. He's had so much success in his career because he's been able to force teams into the groundball. That hasn't been as effective this season, but history suggests it will improve.

This means its strength on strength here today. The Rangers aren't exactly known for blasting the ball's cover, but they have a hard-hit rate in the Top 10 of baseball and a low ground ball rate.

Quantrill has fared positively against teams with a similar juxtaposition. Look to his last outing against the Astros as evidence for that. He was solid against a more potent lineup. He went six innings and gave up two earned runs. A similar performance gets this one Under.

I will once again look at the first five market, where my projections see the most value. While this is a bit juicy, there is still a fair amount of value. I see this going Under the posted total around 70% of the time. That suggests the fair price is closer to -240. Let's roll with the considerable value here.

Prediction: First five innings Under 5.5 (-152 at FanDuel)

Best bet

I think I've had enough of the juice. So let's take the above handicap, put it together, and make it our best bet.

We've already established that the Guardians don't strike out a lot. And I mean, they don't strike out much at home. They average 5.5 in home games and 3.5 in their last three.

This seems like a highly favorable number and one you're getting based upon Gray's numbers but not accounting accurately for Cleveland at the plate. I project three strikeouts here for Gray, making this an easy bet. 

The Rangers start slow as far as it relates to the no run first inning. They haven't scored a first-inning run in three games.

On the flip side, Cleveland has been hot in the past few games in the first inning. I expect that to change today. They face a different pitcher than they've seen in those games, and I think they may need a look or two to warm up to him.

Pick: Same Game Parlay, Jon Gray Under 4.5 strikeouts + No Run First Inning (+252 at FanDuel)

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