Where would the Toronto Blue Jays be without Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Well, still in last place, but much worse.
Rays vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 3.5 (+105 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stayed hot while Yariel Rodriguez turned in his fourth consecutive impressive start as the Toronto Blue Jays took Game 2 of their three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Toronto will go for a much-needed series win against the hated Rays, and they’ll hand the ball to the man with a million pitches, Chris Bassitt, to get the job done.
Following a slow start to the season, Bassitt has arguably been the Blue Jays' most reliable starter. The right-hander has a 3.01 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over his last 14 starts and even though the box score from his last outing against the Detroit Tigers doesn’t look great, two of the five earned runs were allowed because the Jays pushed him into the seventh inning. This was likely because their bullpen is terrible.
This will be Bassitt’s third start against the Rays this season. The first was the second game of the season where he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits while striking out six in five innings. The second came on May 17 where he allowed three runs on five hits with five Ks in 5 2/3 innings.
The Rays have arguably just gotten worse at run production since then, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and has the eighth-highest K-rate vs. RHP this season.
Unfortunately for the Jays, the Rays will counter Bassitt with Taj Bradley, who is absolutely dealing right now.
The 23-year-old right-hander is blossoming into the pitcher the Rays always thought he would be, pitching to a crazy 0.92 ERA, a .170 opponent batting average, and a 30.5% strikeout rate over his last eight starts.
While the Blue Jays have overall better numbers against right-handed pitchers, they are incredibly inconsistent and a guy as hot as Bradley should give them problems today. I’m betting the first half of this game to be low-scoring.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Guerrero continues to rake since coming out of the All-Star break. He is 8-for-18 (.444) with four home runs and seven RBI in his first five games of the second half.
Take away the first month of the season and Vladdy has been one of baseball’s best hitters. Guerrero is hitting .328 with a .985 OPS, 15 home runs, and 51 RBI since May 5.
Vladdy also has solid numbers in his career vs. Bradley, going 3-for-8 with a double and a dinger. That’s good for a .383 expected batting average and a .579 expected slugging. If the Jays manage to plate some runs on Bradley this afternoon, I’m betting Guerrero is one of the reasons why.
Plus, at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.
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Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays live odds
Rays vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150) | Toronto +1.5 -180
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -110 | Toronto -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Rays vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- This AL East matchup opened as basically a coin flip with both sides listed at -110. The early action has been back-and-forth but the Blue Jays are -115 favorites as of this writing.
- This has been a pretty even matchup this season with the Rays taking five of the nine games. Tampa Bay has beaten Toronto both times Chris Bassitt has been on the mound this season. This will be Taj Bradley's first start against Toronto this season.
- The total hit the board at a low 7.5 and that's where it remains on early Thursday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays have turned into more of an Over team of late thanks to the bats coming around and a bullpen that has the second-worst ERA in baseball but this pitching matchup has me leaning toward the Under.
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games for +5.35 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (5-4, 2.63 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (8-8, 3.71 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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