Rays vs Orioles Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Rays Sting O's Once More

The top two teams in the American League will continue their duel for the AL East crown when the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night. 

Tampa Bay drew first blood on Thursday with a 4-3 win behind a late Luke Raley homer. Baltimore still holds a one-game lead in the divisional race, with a two-game cushion in the loss column. The MLB odds still make the Orioles a clear favorite to win the division, but the race is certainly tight.

The Rays can pull into a virtual tie for the division lead with another win tonight, and have a pitching matchup that should set them up for success. We’ll break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Orioles on September 15. 

Rays vs Orioles odds

Rays vs Orioles predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles carry two of the smallest payrolls in the majors, ranking 27th and 28th in MLB respectively. But they’re also the two best teams in the American League, and only the fact that they find themselves in the same division will prevent them from both earning first-round byes in the playoffs this year.

That makes games like tonight’s critical to both teams. In particular, the Rays know they have to win this series to put themselves in a position to overtake the Orioles and avoid having to play in the first round of the postseason.

The Rays are coming to play on Friday, as they’re putting Zach Eflin on the mound tonight. Eflin leads the American League in wins and has posted a solid 3.53 ERA over 160.2 innings of work this season. It’s still unclear what Eflin’s ceiling is, but he seems to have taken a step up from the back-of-the-rotation role he had slipped into in Philadelphia.

Eflin has been strong down the stretch for Tampa Bay. Over his last five starts, he’s put up a 2.86 ERA, while the Rays have won four of those games. Eflin has also had success against the Orioles this year, as he’s pitched to a 2.77 ERA in two starts against Baltimore while striking out 12 batters in 13 innings.

Tampa Bay can be confident that it will be in the game with Eflin on the mound. Unfortunately for the Orioles, they can’t have that same level of certainty about their starter.

Baltimore hoped Jack Flaherty would provide some veteran stability for their rotation when they picked him up from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline. Instead, after a strong debut performance, Flaherty has failed to put together another strong start for his new team. He has a 7.16 ERA over his six starts for the Orioles and has only gotten out of the fifth inning once in his last five appearances. 

It would be great for the Orioles if this could be the night that Flaherty finally puts it together. Unfortunately, he didn’t look great for St. Louis this year, either, and the Rays should be able to score runs early off of the struggling righty. I don’t expect any blowouts in games of this importance, but I’m highly confident in the Rays to get the win on Friday.

My best bet: Rays moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Orioles same-game parlay

Rays moneyline

Under 8.5

Eflin 4+ strikeouts

+340 at DraftKings

We’re going to build a same-game parlay for tonight’s game around Eflin, who should be the star of the show. That starts with once again picking the Rays to win tonight, which I believe they will thanks to the advantageous pitching matchup.

Next, we’ll look to take the Under at 8.5 runs. While Baltimore has been a strong offensive team for most of the season, they’ve only scored five runs over their last three games, all of which hit the Under. Tampa is even more prolific and should score enough to get a win tonight. But with Eflin on the mound, I expect the total to stay below the number.

Finally, let’s back Eflin to get at least four strikeouts tonight. Eflin has hit that target in each of his last five starts, as well as seven of his last eight. It’s not an aggressive total to chase, and I’m confident that he can hit that number against a Baltimore team that is only slightly better than average at avoiding strikeouts.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rays opened tonight’s game as a -130 favorite. That number has lengthened a bit during the day, and the best number on the market now is Tampa Bay -135. Meanwhile, you can get +120 on the Orioles if you want to back the home team.

Each of these teams has crushed the moneyline this year. The Orioles have been absolute gold for bettors, making an incredible 38 units on the moneyline in 2023 thanks to their unexpected dominance of the American League. The Rays aren’t slouches either, making backers about 12.5 units on the season.

I’m all over the Rays tonight, and that’s simply because I like Eflin a whole lot more than Flaherty. I have absolutely no confidence in the Orioles starter and think that the Rays offense will jump on him early. That should give Tampa Bay enough of a cushion to win a reasonably close game. Back Tampa Bay on the moneyline.

The total for this game opened at 8.5 runs and has remained at that number to this point. Most books are offering even action on both sides, though you can find as good as -102 on the Over, while -110 is the best available Under price.

These two offenses have both pushed their teams to big numbers this year. As a result, the Over is 79-54 when Tampa Bay plays, and 78-59 in Orioles games this year. 

Despite those overall numbers, I expect a lower-scoring affair tonight. The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 games between these two teams, with these divisional rivals tending to play close, tough games against each other. That’s particularly true when Eflin starts: the two teams have totaled just 4.5 runs per game in the two games he’s started against the Orioles this year. I’m leaning hard towards the Under.  

Trend to know

The Rays have won six of their last eight games when Eflin is their starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Orioles

Rays vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (14-8, 3.53 ERA): Eflin was always seen as a pitcher with great potential during his time with Philadelphia, but he never quite turned into the star that the Phillies hoped he would. Now, Eflin is enjoying the best season of his career in his first campaign with Tampa Bay. Eflin is back to striking out over a batter per inning while dropping his WHIP to a career-low 1.052, a recipe that has found him great success in 2023. Eflin last threw on September 10, allowing three runs on seven hits over five innings against the Seattle Mariners. 

Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.98 ERA): Many pundits criticized the Orioles for being relatively quiet at the trade deadline, as prying Flaherty from the Cardinals was their biggest move. It hasn’t paid off so far, as the 27-year-old has gone just 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA over his first six starts with Baltimore. Concerningly, Flaherty has allowed six homers in just 27.2 innings since joining the team. In his last start, Flaherty gave up four earned runs on eight hits in just 3 1/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox.

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