The tightly contested AL East will see its two frontrunners battle in a three-game series this week, as the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays head to Fenway Park to take on the second-place Boston Red Sox.
With Boston just four games back of Tampa Bay, every game will be crucial as the two teams square off. Which team will strike first in game one? Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on August 10.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, August 10, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, NESN
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Rays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Patino (2-3, 4.42 ERA): In his second season and first with Tampa Bay, Patino is making his eighth start of the season and first against AL East foe Boston. His last start, against the Mariners a week ago, was the first time he hit the 100-pitch threshold this year, giving up five hits and three runs while striking out just three batters across five innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez (8-6, 5.53 ERA): The long-time Red Sox starter will face the Rays for the second time this year, after allowing seven hits and three earned runs in a no-decision outing in late June. Rodgriguez was fantastic in his previous start, striking out 10 and allowing two hits and zero runs in five innings against the Tigers.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Rays: Randy Arozarena LF (Questionable), DJ Johnson RP (Questionable), Kevin Kiermaier CF (Questionable), Ryan Thompson RF (Out), Jeffrey Springs RP (Out).
Red Sox: Matt Andriese RP (Out), Kyle Schwarber LF (Out), Hirokazu Sawamura RP (Questionable), Danny Santana CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Rays and Red Sox in Boston. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
For the fourth time this season, the Red Sox and Rays will face off against one another, and the stakes have never been higher as the AL East race thickens. A home sweep for Tampa Bay over Boston a week ago boosted its division hopes, though both teams will be watching as the Yankees charge up behind the pair.
While New York makes a charge up the AL East standings, the Red Sox and Rays have seen drastic swings, too. Since closing out their series against the Yankees with a 14-0 win, the Rays have gone 6-2, including that sweep over Boston. The Red Sox, meanwhile have been going in the opposite direction, with a six-game losing streak snapped against the Tigers last week, only to then lose four of five since then.
Though neither team is sending an ace to the mound to begin Tuesday's game, Tampa has the slight edge with Patino boasting a lower ERA and a lower WHIP this season. Plus, while Patino averages just four innings per start, he'll turn it over to a bullpen that has been fantastic, with the second-lowest ERA and WHIP in the Majors. Rodriguez, meanwhile, averages five innings per start but he'll hand it over to a Boston bullpen that is in the middle of the pack in ERA and WHIP.
It will be a closely contested game, but getting the division-leading Rays at plus money is too good of value to pass up. Tampa Bay has the third-highest win percentage this season as the underdog, at 56.1 percent, while Boston is dead in the middle of the league as a favorite, at 59.1 percent. Tampa Bay is 13-4 in its last 17 at Fenway Park, and that mark will improve to 14-4 in its last 18 after Tuesday.
PREDICTION: Rays ML (+110)
Over/Under pick
The Rays are one of baseball's best Over bets, at 61-48-3 on the season and, despite a couple of low-scoring games with the Mariners last week, are 6-4 O/U in their last 10. While the Red Sox are just 48-61-5 O/U this season, their Over percentage is a tick higher at home than on the road, where they have been since the end of July.
In nine prior meetings in 2021, the Rays and Red Sox are 7-2 to the Over, including a 3-0 mark at Fenway Park. Going back to last season, the Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
Though neither Patino nor Rodriguez is likely to go deep into this one, and both teams have solid bullpens to go to, both starters are middling enough to give our Over push a boost in the first half of the game. While it's more likely in a Tampa Bay win, either way, we like the Over in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-110)
Rays vs Red Sox betting card
- Rays ML (+110)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 8/9/2021 at 7:15 p.m. ET
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