A key NL series begins on Thursday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -116 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction is optimistic on the Over, primarily due to the power of these starting lineups.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, September 19.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
These are two of the best lineups in baseball. This season, both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Considering the starting pitching matchup, this success at the dish is likely to continue on both sides. Let’s start with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Through 29 starts this season, Pfaadt possesses a 4.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
He just got obliterated by the Milwaukee Brewers in his most recent start, surrendering eight runs on seven hits in under two innings of work. Pfaadt has now allowed four or more runs in five of his past six starts, posting a 9.00 ERA over that stretch.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Tobias Myers.
While Myers’ surface-level stats are strong, his analytics suggest that regression is looming. The rookie owns a 4.27 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Tobias Myers Under 4.5 strikeouts
Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 hits
I am also going to fade Myers in the prop market as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates. Through 26 combined career plate appearances against Myers, this current D-Backs lineup possesses a mere 19.2% strikeout rate and 14.8% whiff rate.
If we are backing a high-scoring affair while simultaneously fading Myers, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for Arizona batters to record hits. Enter Jake McCarthy, who is 1-for-3 in his career against Myers and possesses an even stronger .434 xBA in that small sample size.
McCarthy is also one of this team’s most consistent batters, recording 58 hits over his past 48 games. He boasts a .309 BA across that span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -102 | Milwaukee -116
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+150) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-182)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-122) | Under 8 (+100)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -116 favorite and remains at that price as of Thursday morning.
- I project this line to shorten, given that Arizona outranks the Brewers in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
- The total opened at 8 and also remains at that number.
- The juice is already on the Over, and I project this line to close at 8.5.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend
There have been nine or more runs scored in eight of Pfaadt’s past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (9-8, 4.42 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (7-5, 2.93 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather
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