Two teams coming off close losses meet for the 101st time in an in-state rivalry this Saturday when SMU hosts TCU.
The Horned Frogs have dominated this series recently, winning eight of the last 10, and my TCU vs. SMU predictions expect that trend to continue.
Read on to find out why my college football picks see the Mustangs struggling to keep up with the TCU offense on Saturday, September 21.
TCU vs SMU prediction
My best bet
TCU -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The TCU Horned Frogs took their first loss of the season last week in a bit of a shootout at home with UCF. They blew a 28-7 lead and trailed for the first time in the game with only 36 seconds left.
One major reason for their inability to hold the lead was their lack of a run game. That will come back to haunt them a lot this season, but this game may not be one of those times.
The SMU Mustangs lost their first contest of the season for a very different reason. They were unable to find the endzone at all and lost 18-15 to BYU.
Quarterback Preston Stone was benched early in that game and Kevin Jennings will get his first start this week against the Horned Frogs. Jennings does give the Mustangs a bit more of a running threat behind center but has not been significantly better than Stone in the passing game.
While SMU has a good defense, some of that may be a bit skewed by their first three opponents having mediocre offenses. The Mustangs have allowed six touchdowns and two field goals in eight red-zone attempts by their opponents. Now they are facing the No. 5 passing offense in the nation and a team that has reached the red zone 17 times already this season.
Josh Hoover has not only lit up opposing defenses in yardage, but he is also very efficient with a 69.6% completion percentage and eight touchdowns with no interceptions. He will be able to lead the Horned Frogs into the red zone and convert those opportunities into six points instead of three. I am not sure SMU will be able to do the same considering they have only seven touchdowns on 14 red-zone attempts this year.
Last year, TCU won this matchup 34-17 despite relatively even yardage totals and time of possession. I can see a similar-style game unfolding this season because of TCU’s ability to finish their drives with touchdowns.
TCU vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)
TCU -3
Savion Williams anytime TD
Jake Bailey 40+ receiving yards
Wide receiver Savion Williams is not only the leader in receptions for TCU, but he is also the leader in receiving touchdowns. He has three on the season through three games and all three were in the red zone. Since red-zone offense is where I believe TCU will pull away in this contest, I will add his anytime touchdown to my same-game parlay.
Finally, I will throw something in on the SMU side to help boost the odds. When Jennings has been behind center this season, one of his favorite targets has been Jake Bailey. He was held without a catch in the season opener with Stone playing most of that game. However, he has seven catches for 93 yards in each of the last two weeks, where Jennings played more snaps.
I like his chances to get 40+ yards against a shaky defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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TCU vs SMU odds
TCU vs SMU live odds
TCU vs SMU opening odds
- Spread: TCU -2.5 | SMU +2.5
- Moneyline: TCU -135 | SMU +115
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
TCU vs SMU spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at TCU -1 but quickly moved to TCU -3 and remains there as of Thursday morning.
- The winner of the game has also covered the spread in each of the last five meetings.
- The total opened at 57 but has climbed to 58.5 as of Thursday morning.
- Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone Over the total.
TCU vs SMU betting trend to know
SMU has failed to cover the spread as an underdog in eight of their last 10 opportunities. Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs SMU.
TCU vs SMU game info
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | The CW Network |
TCU vs SMU latest injuries
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