The Toronto Blue Jays will try to avoid the three-game sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers when they play a Thursday matinee.
Blue Jays vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays first-five moneyline (+105 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays got yet another outstanding performance from Bowden Francis yesterday. Unfortunately for Jays fans, he was outdueled by Texas Rangers starter Cody Bradford, who threw seven shutout innings in a 2-0 Rangers win.
We go from one exciting pitching matchup to another, as Kevin Gausman and Kumar Rocker will be on the bump. Gausman enters this game dealing after an up-and-down first half to the season, while Rocker will try to build off an electric performance in his first career MLB start.
Gausman has pitched to a solid 2.56 ERA and 3.30 FIP over his last seven starts, limiting opponents to a .213 batting average. That’s not a good thing for a Rangers’ lineup that has disappointed this season, particularly against right-handers.
The once-dangerous Rangers’ lineup, which was a big catalyst in their World Series run last fall, enters this game ranked 22nd in batting average, 24th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+, and righties have really zapped their power, as they rank 25th in slugging right-handed pitching.
Meanwhile, it looks like the New York Mets made another mistake letting Rocker slip through their fingers. The right-hander struck out seven of the 17 batters he faced while allowing just one run on three hits over four innings in his MLB debut. That’s an awesome 41% strikeout rate.
However, we’ve got to remember that was still just Kumar’s first career start, against a perfect opponent in the swing-happy Mariners. The Blue Jays should provide a tougher test.
Toronto’s lineup has turned a corner since the trade deadline when the team started giving more at-bats to their younger players. Now, the Jays rank eighth in batting average, sixth in OPS and fifth wRC+ since Aug. 1. They also have the ninth-lowest K-rate during that period.
So, when I see the Blue Jays as underdogs with a solid veteran on the mound going against a guy making just his second career start, all I see is value.
Once again, I’m eliminating the anxiety-inducing Blue Jays bullpen from the scenario by taking the five-inning moneyline here.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
If there's anyone in this Blue Jays lineup who can take advantage of an inexperienced starter, it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Blue Jays star first baseman was held hitless in last night’s loss, so that means he’s due. (Side note: “he’s due” is never something a bettor should consider. But it’s just to highlight how locked in Guerrero has been this season).
Vladdy enters this game hitting .319 with a .936 OPS, 28 home runs and 97 RBI. He has also driven in at least one run eight times in the last 16 games. Furthermore, righty-lefty hasn’t mattered for Guerrero. His batting average of .323 is actually higher vs. right-handed pitching while still sporting a very good .928 OPS.
At +150 there's definitely some value in Vladdy to drive in a run this afternoon.
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Blue Jays vs Rangers odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers live odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Texas -110
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -210 | Texas -1.5 +175
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Blue Jays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This AL matchup opened as basically a coin flip with both sides priced at -110, but early bettors saw some value with the home team, and the Blue Jays are now +105 underdogs.
- This line move feels like an overreaction to Rocker's first career start. Yes, he looked impressive, but it was one start, and he's going against veteran Gausman, who faces a Rangers lineup that has struggled.
- The total for this matchup hit the board at an even 8.0, and bettors were quick to jump on the Under, with the number now sitting at 7.5.
- I would tend to agree with the early money here. Gausman should continue his run of solid pitching, while Rocker does have some electric stuff. I would maybe consider the five-inning Under, however, due to a pair of suspect bullpens.
Blue Jays vs Rangers trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Under in 12 of their last 19 games for +5.50 Units and a 26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers.
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Southwest |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (12-11, 4.02 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Kumar Rocker (0-0, 2.25 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Rangers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Rangers weather
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