The New York Yankees are on a roll, moving five games clear of the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East with another win on Wednesday.
Clarke Schmidt will look to build the Yanks' momentum, and my Yankees vs. Mariners predictions expect him — and Logan Gilbert — to keep tonight's score low. Read more in my MLB picks for September 19 ahead.
Yankees vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-124 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s often hard to understand the struggles of Logan Gilbert, who seems to be growing stronger with every month.
The righty should be enjoying his best month of the season with a .195 xBA against him — the fifth straight time that has dropped as the calendar has flipped — but once again, he’s been knocked around.
Gilbert’s allowed 10 earned runs in 20 innings around an eye-popping 26 punchouts, with the biggest sticking point seeming to be the four home runs he’s surrendered.
The RHP allowed three runs on eight hits over six innings in his only outing against the New York Yankees this season, but he’ll encounter a much different version today. New York has not only fallen flat with a wRC+ of 80 over the past two weeks, but the team has struck out in 23.8% of plate appearances around a middling .105 Isolated Power.
I have faith in Gilbert here, particularly with the expected numbers telling a different story than his results. On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners seem to be ripe for regression here as they finally face some capable arms in their home park.
Seattle has scored just three runs through two games of this series as its strikeout rate begins to climb back up to the great heights we’re accustomed to, and with almost a 30-point gap in its actual and expected batting averages, it’s no surprise these red-hot bats are suddenly coming up short.
Schmidt held this team to just two runs over five frames in May, and with continued competence, he should navigate this lineup just fine. He carries a .263 xBA into this one and pops plus strikeout stuff, with nearly 26% of the batters he’s faced going down on strikes. It’s a good spot to believe in both pitchers.
Aaron Judge pick: Delayed trial
My best bet
Aaron Judge Under 0.5 runs scored (-120 a DraftKings)
My analysis
Aaron Judge hasn’t been particularly successful against Gilbert over his career, going 3-for-11 with a .260 xBA and three strikeouts, so we’re left with an interesting decision in the player props market.
Shorting Judge is going to cost you a pretty penny or carry great risk with some low lines set, but the market on his runs is quite interesting.
Judge has scored just four times, in four different games, over his last 10 and should feature in a game which is very low-scoring as much of the Yankees lineup struggles to get on base and move runners around. He’s looking at a tough one here, and with the struggles against Gilbert, I don’t anticipate him getting on base all that much.
Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases
Clarke Schmidt 7+ strikeouts
I wasn't able to take the line on Judge’s runs scored, so I'm opting for the higher price on his total bases here in an effort to bet on some struggles. It’s worth noting he’s walked three times against Gilbert, and with the righty issuing a free pass in each of his last three outings, there’s the added bonus of Judge reaching base here without recording a total base.
Judge does have 11 hits over his last 10 games, but just four of them have gone for extra bases, and he’ll be playing in a park where fly balls go to die. This should be safe enough and lead us to Schmidt’s strikeouts.
As mentioned, he's looked like a promising strikeout arm with a 29.9% whiff rate which sits in the Top 20% of all pitchers and has led him to a 25.9% strikeout rate. Seattle did briefly look more comfortable in limiting punchouts, but over the last two weeks are now back up to 24% in strikeout rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners live odds
Yankees vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Seattle -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+150) | Seattle +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Unde 7.5 (-125)
Yankees vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle opened as a +108 underdog here, but the stay was brief as the line quickly shot the other way and has been resting around -120 all day on Thursday.
- While 72% of the bets are on the Yankees to win here over at DraftKings, 48% of the money is on the Mariners.
- The total opened at 7.5 runs and remained there for a while before dipping to seven runs on Thursday morning.
- The Over has accounted for 52% of the total handle and 78% of the tickets.
Yankees vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 44 of their last 76 games at home (+13.27 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
Yankees vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Root Sports |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries
Yankees vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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