The Utah Utes play their first-ever Big 12 regular season game when they travel to Stillwater and our Utah vs. Oklahoma State predictions like their chances against this Cowboys team.
There have been some shenanigans with the betting line as Utah opened at -1.5, moved to +3, then swung back to -2.5 before heading to the current number of +2.5. With turbulence this wild in the market, there's a need to dive deeper into the matchup with our college football picks.
Utah vs Oklahoma State prediction
My best bet
Utah +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Utah Utes starting quarterback Cameron Rising was assumed to be the starter per usual heading into the 2023 season. The problem? He never took a snap despite endless speculation each week that he’d finally be returning to the field, taking a whole season to recover from a torn ACL, meniscus, MPFL, and MCL.
Well, the speculation over his availability is back in 2024. He left the Baylor game two weeks ago after injuring his hand, forcing true freshman Isaac Wilson into action for the last six quarters. The star quarterback is "expected to play” this week. There have been conflicting reports about the exact details of his injury, but it seems as though he dislocated his finger and had a laceration that required stitches.
The wild line movement seems to indicate that bettors have shellshock over what happened last year with Rising’s seemingly imminent availability never coming to fruition. If he’s described as “expected to play” and is practicing, I’m working under the assumption he’s starting and would be very surprised if anything else happens. You can use the “fool me twice” mantra, but this isn’t a knee injury like last time.
With Rising under center, the Utes are simply a better football team. The Oklahoma State Cowboys weren’t a good football team last year despite making it to the Big 12 title game. Mike Gundy’s squad had some very concerning underlying metrics, and things aren’t much prettier this time around.
The offense has been clicking (42.7 points per game, 446.3 total yards per game) but has notably struggled to run the ball. How do you rank 118th in rushing success rate despite having superstar running back Ollie Gordon behind an ultra-experienced offensive line?
Utah offers a much more challenging defense than the Cowboys have seen this season — the Utes rank 17th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate, featuring a deep stable of disruptive front seven players.
The Cowboys haven’t proven capable of stopping anyone under second-year defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo. They rank 72nd in EPA per play and 127th in explosiveness. Ranking 98th in PFF’s rush defense metric and 87th in their tackling metric doesn’t seem like a good way to stop a physical and disciplined Utah offense.
Utah is the better team, is typically a great bet as an underdog under Kyle Whittingham, and is catching points.
Utah vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay (SGP)
Utah +2.5
Micah Bernard 70+ rushing yards
Micah Bernard 20+ receiving yards
Micah Bernard anytime touchdown
Dorian Singer anytime touchdown
This OSU defense has been downright bad. It allowed 6.0 yards per play to a South Dakota State team that turned over nearly its entire roster from a season ago, then was torched for 648 yards on 7.0 yards per play at home against Arkansas.
Nardo was a peculiar hire from the Division II ranks, but Gundy is a peculiar person and so most folks let it slide. After a year and a half of supremely underwhelming performances by this defense — and the absence of the unit’s best player — edge Collin Oliver — I’ll need to see way more before I become a believer.
Micah Bernard is Utah’s RB1, racking up 282 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.3 yards per touch. Utah shouldn’t struggle to create some running room against a Cowboys front that checks in at 95th in line yards and 113th in stuff rate.
Bernard is an aerial weapon as well, with 73 career receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns. He hasn’t been used in that realm much so far this year but that’s just due to offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig not showing anything on film that he doesn’t have to, so I’m buying low on his props.
Dorian Singer is the WR1 for the Utes and has a great matchup.
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Utah vs Oklahoma State odds
Utah vs Oklahoma State live odds
Utah vs Oklahoma State opening odds
- Spread: Utah +1.5 | Oklahoma State -1.5
- Moneyline: Utah +105 | Oklahoma State -125
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Utah vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma State ranks outside of the Top 100 in eight of the 37 advanced metrics that I use to handicap games. Utah, on the other hand, is outside the Top 100 in five of them — with the caveat that four of those are on the offensive end, where it has had a true freshman backup quarterback for half of its playing time.
- OSU tends to get out to a hot start offensively, hitting the first-quarter Under in just two of its last 13 games. That number is currently set at 10.5 at BetMGM with -115 odds to the Over and -110 to the Under.
- This game is a contrast of style as Oklahoma State looks to push the tempo (10th nationally in plays per minute) while Utah likes to sit on the ball (119th).
Utah vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
Utah is 13-7-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs Oklahoma State.
Utah vs Oklahoma State game info
| Location: | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Utah vs Oklahoma State latest injuries
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