After dropping the first game in this series, the Chicago White Sox earned a win over the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday to even things up at one apiece. Now, the White Sox will be hoping to win the rubber match to avoid going back to .500 on the season.
Will Chicago end up taking two from a Boston team that had won five in a row before this series started? Here are our MLB picks and predictions in the battle of the Sox.
Red Sox vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Red Sox were going off at +100 when this first hit betting markets, but they’re now as high as a -115 favorite in some places. Chicago is still favored on most sportsbooks, but it’s interesting to see that there are some moving it the other way.
The total, which opened at 9, hasn't changed at the time of this writing, and some books are making you pay a small price to take the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 5/25/2022 at 2:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, May 26, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, NBC Sports Chicago
Red Sox vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Michael Wacha (3-0, 1.76 ERA): Wacha is off to a scorching start to the 2022 season. The 30-year-old doesn’t work very deep into games, but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all six of his starts this year.
Dallas Keuchel (2-4, 6.60 ERA): The lefty’s 5.28 ERA in 2021 was the worst of his career and he’s on pace to have an even worse mark in 2022. Keuchel also has a career-low strikeout-to-walk ratio, but that doesn’t exactly mean he’s a lost cause. He did pitch six innings of two-run ball against the Red Sox back on May 8, but the highs have been outweighed by the lows.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Jonathan Arauz SS (Out), Josh Taylor P (Out), Chris Sale P (Out).
White Sox: Luis Robert OF (Out), Eloy Jimenez OF (Out), Ryan Burr P (Out), Yermin Mercedes DH (Out), Garrett Crochet P (Out), Lance Lynn P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last six games as underdogs. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. White Sox
Red Sox vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Dallas Keuchel gave up only two runs over six innings against this same Red Sox team just a few weeks back, so you might be thinking that the lefty is primed to go out there and do it again in this spot. However, despite the fact that Boston lost to Chicago on Wednesday, the Red Sox had won six in a row entering that game.
The Red Sox also scored at least five runs in each of those wins, so the offense is clicking. Keuchel also doesn’t have the same ability that he used to, so Boston should be ready to attack.
Guys like J.D. Martinez, Trevor Story, and Xander Bogaerts are all threats to make something happen at the plate in this one. Martinez is batting .385 with an on-base plus slugging of .986 when facing lefties this year, while Story has two homers and 12 RBIs against southpaws on the season.
Meanwhile, Bogaerts is hitting .323 against lefties in 2022, and he can almost always be counted on to get himself on base thanks to a career-high .391 OBP thus far in 2022 — he’s also 5-for-14 with a homer and three RBI against Keuchel in his career. Rafael Devers is another player who is never easy to get out, and he could easily come through despite the perceived matchup disadvantage. Devers doesn't shy away from fellow lefties, though, as he's boasting a robust .356 batting average against southpaws this season and has historically handled lefties well (.274/.325/.413), though his power comes through more consistently against right-handers.
As for Wacha, it’s hard to really trust the start he has gotten off to, but he has given up only four earned runs over 15 1-3 innings on the road this season. The Red Sox would be obviously happy if he could limit the damage to three runs in five or six innings, and it’s certainly not out of the question. Only two teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than Chicago this season.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-103 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Keuchel’s last trip to the hill against this Red Sox team resulted in an Under, but Boston should do better after having had time to figure out how to approach the soft-tossing lefty. Overall, Keuchel isn’t pitching well enough to go out and shut a team of this offensive caliber down twice, so the Red Sox should be able to put a decent number on the scoreboard tonight.
Chicago also has the ninth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, so Boston may get extra scoring chances later in the game. That’ll help Over bettors, and it doesn’t hurt that this isn’t a bad match-up for the White Sox, either. Wacha’s current level just isn’t sustainable, and he’s due to start letting up some runs soon. His 1.76 ERA is great, but Wacha's 4.32 FIP and .173 BABIP against suggest regression to the mean is going to hit him hard.
It’s also worth noting that the Over is 5-1 in the last six games that the Red Sox have played, and it’s also 5-1 in the White Sox’s last six home games against right-handed starters. And Chicago has done damage against righties who are historically a lot better than Wacha.
Prediction: Over 9 (-109 at Unibet)
Best bet
The Red Sox didn’t earn a victory over the White Sox last night, but Martinez still had two hits in the loss. The 34-year-old is in the midst of a ridiculous season for Boston, and it just seems irresponsible not to ride him while he’s hot.
Martinez comes into this game after having gotten at least two hits in nine of his last 12 games, and there might not be a player in baseball who is seeing the ball as well as him right now. With that in mind, it’s hard not to jump on the plus-money for him to have another multi-hit game here.
The matchup with Keuchel, who can't overpower anyone, is to the slugger's advantage as well. Martinez absolutely crushes left-handed pitchers, as he is batting .385 against them this year and has hit .307 vs. lefties over his career. Against a southpaw that doesn’t have overpowering stuff, Martinez could have a monster night.
Pick: J.D. Martinez gets at least two hits (+195)
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