In a battle of the NL Central’s top two teams, the Cincinnati Reds will play visitor Friday night for the second day in a row after some poor relief pitching handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 5-3 victory in the opener last night.
Friday’s meeting will pit a pair of southpaws as veteran starter Wade Miley will duel Eric Lauer as the latter will try to help keep his team’s lead in the NL Central intact.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers for Friday, July 9.
Reds vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Friendly Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, July 9, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YouTube
Reds vs Brewers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged this moneyline a -108 pick 'em at Thursday night's outset, moved to Milwaukee -120 this morning, then spent pretty much all day at -118, where the moneyline sits at 6 p.m. ET. It's two-way action, with 55 percent of bets on the Reds and 59 percent of dollars on the Brewers. The total is up a few cents, from 8.5 (Over -114) to 8.5 (Over -122), with 55 percent of bets on the Under, but 81 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameReds vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (6-4, 3.06 ERA): Wade Miley leads the Reds’ rotation in ERA and WHIP. He doesn’t miss many bats with just 72 K’s in 88 innings, but the veteran lefty hasn’t lost since May 19 — a span of seven starts. Opponents have a .195 batting average against Miley on the road this year, but he has allowed 22 walks+hits over his last 12 innings of work.
Eric Lauer (3-3, 4.11 ERA): Eric Lauer has won both of his last two starts and has allowed just one run across 12 innings. He's also given up just six hits, with none of them being of the four-bag variety. The knock on Lauer was giving up long balls (10 in 50 IP this season), but if the 26-year-old pitcher can limit multi-home run games, he will be a staple in the bottom of the Milwaukee rotation. He has pitched nine innings against the Reds and has allowed six runs and a whopping eight walks.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Reds: Nick Senzel OF (out), Michel Lorenzo RP (questionable).
Brewers: Kolten Wang 2B (out), Lorenzo Cain OF (out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 4-0 SU in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.
Moneyline pick
The Brewers are 15-4 SU over their last 19 games heading into their second match of a four-game set with the Reds. The run of victories has helped them climb the NL Central, but a good showing against the Reds this weekend could go a long way in expanding their seven-game lead over Cincinnati.
The clubs are quite familiar with each other this year, as they have met 10 times, with each club earning five wins. Last night’s game wasn’t a pretty one, with some defensive miscues and spotty bullpen relief from the Reds. But Milwaukee proved they can get it down with a surprisingly solid lineup that features Keston Hiura in the seven-spot and a bullpen that really swings the advantage to the Brewers.
Milwaukee relievers tossed 4 2-3 innings of scoreless ball last night and just shut down the Reds’ bats. Four Brewers RP’s allowed one hit, zero walks and six strikeouts. If Lauer can hand things over in the seventh, the Brewers will be in great shape.
The Cincinnati bullpen, on the other hand, got saddled with the loss in the opener as Brad Brack gave up two runs and three hits while recording just a single out in a tie game. The Reds’ bullpen has the second-highest ERA in all of baseball and has blown two of their last three games.
Milwaukee hits left-handed pitching hard and in the air, as they have one of the lowest groundball rates versus LHP. The Brewers’ offense is 9 for 27 versus Miley, and Willy Adames comes into Friday’s match slashing .360/.448/.720 over the last week and went 1 for 3 with a run and walk in the win yesterday. The lineup is hot and last night’s hero, Avisail Garcia, has a .913 OPS over the last seven days and has 16 long balls which leads the team.
Getting the Brewers at -105 at home in a pitching matchup that we feel is pretty neutral seems like a bargain.
PREDICTION: Milwaukee ML (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Reds are one of baseball’s most profitable Over teams with a 44-36 O/U mark. One would think that the majority of those wins would come at Great American Ball Park, where they score 5.53 runs per game, but the Reds have been equally efficient at cashing Over tickets on the road as well. The Under went 2-1 in the last series, but that was before the Brewers hit another gear and went on an 11-game winning streak where they averaged 8.54 runs per game.
The Brewers didn’t do much damage offensively in the last series, but Adames and Jace Peterson have been hot at the dish for the Brewers. Peterson doesn’t see a lot of lefties, but has seen Miley in the past and is 1 for 2 against the LHP with a homer.
Looking at the Cincinnati offense, Nick Castellanos owns a .926 OPS versus left-handed pitching with five home runs in 83 at-bats. He also comes into Friday’s contest slashing .305/.354/.593 over the last 14 days with four homers in 59 at-bats. This is a powerful middle of the lineup.
Milwaukee may have the worst batting average versus LHP, but they hit lefties hard. Their 35.3 percent hard-hit rate is third-best in the league and when they do hit it, they put it in the air as their 36 percent groundball rate is the lowest in baseball. They have a high 26 percent strikeout rate versus LHP, but Miley isn’t overpowering anyone and had just three punchouts in his last outing (six innings).
Both clubs have been profitable to the Under of late, but with Miley tending to create a lot of traffic on the bases, Lauer liking to get taken deep and a Cincy bullpen we don’t trust, we’re playing the Over 9 on Friday night.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (+100)
Reds vs Brewers betting card
- Milwaukee ML (-105)
- Over 9 (+100)
Picks made on 7/9/2021 at 5:00 a.m. ET
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