The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers will lock horns for Game Two of a four-game series on national television tonight.
There aren't many teams hotter in baseball than the Jays. They took Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 5-3 and have now won eight of their last 10. On the other hand, the Tigers have continued to move towards the very bottom of baseball, winning just three of their last 10.
Who can grab the second game of this series? Find out our MLB picks and predictions for Friday, July 29, 2022.
Tigers vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Today's odds opened up with the Jays as massive -365 favorites. Since then, they've bet down to one of the most significant favorites they've been of the season at -395. The Tigers are returning at +325. The total opened up at 8.5 and has stayed there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Tigers vs Blue Jays predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays -2.5 (-115)
- Prediction: Tigers F5 TT Under 1.5 (-165)
- Best bet: Blue Jays first to five runs (-130)
Picks made on 7/29/2022 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tigers vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Friday, July 29, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Tigers vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Bryan Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Garcia is making the first start of his MLB career after getting called up from AAA. Previously, he has made 72 appearances, but all have come in relief. It isn't easy to pinpoint how deep Garcia will go into the game, but he has yet to go over four innings this season.
There's little data on Garcia, but his struggles in AAA are alarming. Beyond owning an ERA over seven at the major league level, Garcia has turned in an unremarkable 1-to-1 strike to walk ratio so far for the Toledo Mudhens. That points to someone not very comfortable with the pitches he's throwing. Instead, he relies heavily on a sinker which makes up over 50% of his pitching repertoire.
Alek Manoah (11-4, 2.24 ERA): What else can you say about Alek Manoah? He's been as impressive as any pitcher in the league this season, and it seems he came out of the All-Star break even better. Manoah has allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts, both of which have gone over five innings. It's the second time he's accomplished such a feat this season, also doing so in early June when posted back-to-back starts yielding zero earned runs.
By now, you know that any Manoah number is elite — perhaps the most impressive, though, is a hard-hit rank that ranks sixth among any active pitcher. You don't hit Manoah hard, even when he makes a mistake.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Tigers are 1-5 in their last six meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Tigers vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
In baseball, we are often faced with a position of laying heavy juice on a dominant pitching matchup. That's the situation we have with the Toronto Blue Jays today. For full disclosure, my projections are seeing value on the Tigers. They say they should be played down to around +210, and you can find a much better price on them than that. However, I can't do it. So, I'll be rolling with Toronto tonight and taking the rare stance of going against my model.
This is relatively simple for me. We all know about Alek Manoah and what he can do at the mound. Yes, there’s the urge to be tempted by a price north of +300, but there's nearly no justification for backing it. The Tigers average the fewest runs per game in baseball. On the road, that number gets worse, falling to around 2.5 runs per game. So, how do we expect them to score enough against Manaoh to give themselves a chance? We can't.
On the flip side, our little data on Garcia reveals that he has issues with the sinker. That's terrible news for him against this Toronto lineup. They've hit everything in sight lately, but they've mainly been good against the sinker. Today's lineup will feature six players — yes, six — batting over .300 on the season against it. That includes red-hot bats such as Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman.
We can't fade Toronto in this spot — they will roll. So, we're looking at the alternative market as a source of value and are taking the -2.5 spread.
Prediction: Blue Jays -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Another side, another opportunity to fade the Tigers. This time we can do it on the offensive side of things because we have one of the best pitchers in baseball going tonight for Toronto.
Alex Manoah hasn't given up over one run in back-to-back starts. If he makes it a third tonight, it will be the longest he's gone this season without surrendering more than one run. We like his chances to do just that.
The Tigers' offensive struggles are well-documented here. Our latest MLB Power Rankings have them ranked 28th overall, but we rank them as the worst offense in baseball. Beyond the straightforward problem of having to face Manoah, the matchup in particular, because of his pitching style, is bad for the Tigers.
Manoah is a slider and fastball pitcher, with the fastball making up the largest portion of his pitches and the slider being used as the primary put-out pitch. The Tigers don't hit either one of these pitches very well, but they are awful against the slider. They have just one player in their lineup today with a positive run value: Miguel Cabrera, and even he hasn't been the best lately.
This is a bit of a juicy price at -165, but we see the considerable value. Our projections say this should be priced closer to -200, so I'm comfortable betting it here.
Prediction: Tigers first five team total Under 1.5 (-165 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Our Best Bet, quite frankly, feels too good to be true. But, as we've previously noted, Toronto has one of the major's hottest offenses, and we'll back that offense tonight.
Our projections have them scoring over five runs in about 75% of our simulations. With the matchup they have on the mound, that feels accurate. I will not overcomplicate this one much more than it needs to be. Take the Jays to score five runs and to do so first. The offense has a dream matchup, and the Tigers aren't approaching five runs with Manaoh on the mound.
Pick: Blue Jays first to five runs (-130 at FanDuel)
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