The MLB betting board is jam-packed with early games for Memorial Day, including a series-opening clash between the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles at 1:05 p.m. ET.
While Baltimore is predictably buried in the difficult AL East basement, Minnesota is surprisingly sitting at the bottom of the Central in last place itself.
Which of these struggling teams will kick off this three-game set with a victory? Find out with our best free picks and predictions for Twins vs. Orioles on May 31.
Twins vs Orioles game info
• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Monday, May 31, 2021
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Twins vs Orioles odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Twins vs Orioles betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (5-2, 3.67 ERA): The 27-year-old has slowed down in May after a strong first month, but is still enjoying a solid season in which he’s posting career-best stats in a number of categories. Berrios’ 3.67 ERA is the best of his career, as is his K rate, and he’s coming off a start in which he punched out seven (for the second consecutive outing) and allowed one earned run in a win over the Orioles.
Jorge Lopez (1-6, 5.80 ERA): The right-hander has been burned by the same issues for much of the season: the long ball and a lack of control. That was on display in his last start, which came against these very same Twins, where he allowed his ninth homer of the campaign and issued a season-high four walks. That said, he worked a season-high six innings and logged his first quality start of the season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Twins: Byron Buxton OF (Out), Max Kepler OF (Out), .
Orioles: Austin Hays OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0-1 in the Twins' last six games as a road favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Orioles.
Runline pick
The Twins, expected to be the White Sox’s biggest threat in the Central, have instead been one of the major disappointments in baseball this season. Though they have shown some signs of life, going 7-3 in their last 10, they're still looking up to four teams in the division.
Their pitching has been a disaster but that shouldn’t matter all that much for Monday with Berrios on the mound to face an Orioles team that has lost 13 in a row and done a terrible job at hitting righties.
Baltimore ranks dead last in the majors in OPS versus right-handers, slugging an MLB-worst .350 with a .284 on-base percentage. And Berrios has been dynamite against right-handers.
While lefties have hit Berrios hard, sporting a .306/.376/.551 batting line, he has held righties to a .167 average and .506 OPS. Against a lineup he shouldn't have much trouble with, he'll likely be able to stay in this game long and not risk the Twins' bullpen from coughing up the game, even though Baltimore stands a good chance to do some damage once Berrios exits.
Berrios has worked six-plus innings in three of five May starts and is coming off back-to-back seven-strikeout performances. Outside of an uncharacteristic start against the Detroit Tigers in which he walked five and struck out only one, he has flashed exceptional control while generating strikeouts at a high clip, punching out 29 and issuing four free passes in his other four May outings.
As for the Twins' bats, they've been producing and will continue to against Lopez, who struggles to keep the ball in the yard and runs into a team that has no difficulty sending it out of the park.
With Berrios on the mound and backed by a strong Twins offense against a pitcher who's susceptible to the long ball, we like the Twins on the runline this afternoon.
PREDICTION: Minnesota -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Twins wouldn't be at the bottom of the Central with even semi-competent pitching, but the reality is their pitchers don't miss nearly enough bats, give up too many hits, and it adds up to a 4.66 ERA that's the seventh-worst mark in baseball.
Minnesota's offense, however, has been great, especially from a power perspective. The club has the fifth-best slugging percentage in baseball, ranks fourth in homers, and has still produced at the dish without its best offensive player, Byron Buxton, who looked like an MVP contender through the first month of the season. Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano have crushed 19 of the Twins' 71 homers and both will have a great opportunity to light up the sky against Lopez and an Orioles staff (5.04 ERA) that's even worse than the Twins.
Lopez is allowing 1.80 homers per nine innings (the 14th-highest mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings) and only five pitchers have a worse home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
The Twins' lineup is tough to generate swings and misses against, ranking in the bottom-10 in baseball in K percentage, and Lopez has a career .281 batting average against. There should be lots of balls put in play and you can count on some of them leaving the yard, as the Twins' offense ranks fifth in HR/FB rate.
Although we expect a strong outing from Berrios, the Twins' bullpen has been been a nightmare and will be vulnerable even to the Orioles' light-hitting lineup. We're betting on a high-scoring series opener.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (+100)
Twins vs Orioles betting card
- Minnesota -1.5 (-110)
- Over 9 (+100)
Picks made on 5/30/2021 at 6:23 p.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Twins vs. Orioles picks, you could win $28.18 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
