The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees will meet in the Bronx for a four-game series. All games are significant when you get to this point in the season, and this one is no different for these two teams.
New York is trying to avoid a colossal choke of the AL East, with their double-digit divisional lead now down to just five after losing two of three to the Rays.
Minnesota is tied for first atop the AL Central with the Cleveland Guardians. They come into this one off a series loss to the Chicago White Sox and at 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Who will grab the first game of the series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Monday, September 5.
Twins vs Yankees best odds
Twins vs Yankees picks and predictions
The Yankees haven’t scored more than two runs since the end of August, but towards the end of the season, we’ve found ourselves back with the Yankees in buy-low spots.
Sometimes it’s worked, sometimes it hasn’t, but this is another one of those favorable spots to back the Yankees in some fashion. Especially when you’re getting the rare public fade of a team like New York, these spots are one of my favorites. While I won’t trust them to win outright, I will take a play on their team total.
New York is coming back home for a series and, as we talked about in the open, is on the verge of a historic collapse. Just on the surface, I love the angle of a team in front of its home fans, late in the season, battling to keep its divisional lead and getting a reasonably suspect pitcher on the mound.
Even with the late-season struggles they’ve had, the Yankees are still third in baseball in runs scored at home (5 per game). Those numbers and win rates tend to go up after losses, too. To cash this, we’re asking the average to continue.
Twins pitcher Chris Archer’s starts have been an adventure this season. August improved, but it could only go up and it still doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, as he still posted an ERA over 5.00.
He last saw the Yankees in June and was stellar. He gave up just one earned run in five innings, but that was in Minnesota, and the Yankees have been entirely different at home this season. In addition, all the Yanks slash numbers improve significantly when getting a second look at a pitcher.
Archer has a strange disposition. He has one of the best sliders in baseball right now – at least by run value – as it produced a -11 one. The flip side of that, though, is his fastball has been one of the worst in baseball and produced a +13 run value.
It will be all about the Yankees having some reasonable success against that slider and getting him to his secondary pitches. They don’t hit the slider tremendously, but they will have four batters in the lineup that are .250 or better against the season. Solid enough.
Conditions in Yankees Stadium will be favorable for the long ball with winds blowing out to left-field and temperatures in the mid-80s.
In a vacuum, backing the Yankees with a pitcher with a lousy fastball going against them has been profitable. I don’t expect that to change today, especially when the ball will have plenty of carries.
My projections see this going over about 65% of the time, which gives us plenty of an edge against the number.
My best bet: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Twins vs Yankees betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Yankees are in a good spot here to get a series win. Historically, they’ve dominated the Twins, and again, the angle of a team at home with its backs against the wall is appealing, but back to the history part again:
This season, New York has scored double-digit runs in two of the three games they’ve played the Twins. In the Bronx, the Twins have been owned, going 23-71 in the last 94 meetings. That’s a significant sample size of dominance.
We haven’t talked about who is opposing Archer in Jameson Taillon yet, but he’s undoubtedly been the most consistent pitcher of the two. He’s posted five consecutive starts giving up three earned runs or less in over five or more innings of work.
He’s done that against some big bats, including teams like the Toronto Blue Jays. You get that today, and you feel good, especially with Chris Archer on the mound.
That said, I’m not backing New York right now at a price above -140. They haven’t played consistent, good baseball for months, and even though I’m still a believer, I have to see it. I think there are better ways to fade Chris Archer at the mound, and I’m doing that.
Over/Under analysis
The Over may be worth a look here.
It’s no secret that Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, and today we’re getting a hot, humid day with a slight breeze to left-field. BallparkPal.com estimates that this is good for an increase of over 25% on home runs vs. the average. Lucky for us? We’re getting two teams that know how to hit the long ball.
This game pits two teams that rank in the Top 5 of barrel rate. New York is second, and Minnesota is fourth. I have long said throughout the season that the Twins hitters are undervalued and that barrel rate is a big part of it.
I’ve documented the struggles of Archer enough. The Yankees hitters should have success with him, and they should be able to barrel the ball, but so should the Twins hitters. Taillon's barrel rate puts him in the Bottom 28% of baseball. Look at Twins players like former Yankee Gary Sanchez and Carlos Correa to capitalize on that.
I see a better value on this number at 7.5 than the current 8. What I’m hoping for is a scoreless first inning and then jumping on this number live. It’s playable at -110 or better there, based on my current projections.
Twins vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Monday, September 5, 2022
• First pitch: 12:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, YES
Starting pitchers
Chris Archer (2-7, 4.52 ERA): We’ve heavily documented Chris Archer’s adventurous season, but it’s worth repeating. Every peripheral number for Archer ranks in the bottom 25% of qualified pitchers. His hard-hit rate stands out the most, ranking in the bottom 12% of baseball.
How he’s managed to keep us ERA where it currently sits is a bit remarkable, but it’s a product of a very elite slider that has produced one of the lowest run values in baseball.
Jameson Taillon (12-4, 3.97 ERA): Taillon has been good enough for the Yankees this season. While he likely won’t dominate the mound, you will get enough solid performance to keep you in the game. He's only given up more than five runs twice this season, and he’s delivered five quality starts in his last six appearances.
He produces a slightly above average ground-ball rate, but his biggest key is inducing soft contact. He ranks in the Top 25% of baseball in hard-hit rate and is on the upper-end of pitchers in Chase Rate. He was pulled early in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels after giving up two earned runs in two innings.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
This season, the Yankees have scored 10 or more runs in two of three games they’ve played against the Minnesota Twins. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees
