White Sox vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fading Garcia's Strikeout Total

On Sunday afternoon, the Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox in the fourth and final installment of this season-opening series.

Houston won two of the first three matchups of this series and now sits as a -172 favorite in this contest.

Will the Astros improve to 3-1 to begin their championship defense, or can the White Sox pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Astros on Sunday, April 2.

White Sox vs Astros odds

White Sox vs Astros predictions

Taking the mound for the Houston Astros in this contest is right-hander Luis Garcia. While Garcia is a tremendous young pitcher, his strikeout total at 5.5 is set too high in this matchup.

After a strong rookie campaign in 2021, he took a slight step back in 2022 and saw decreases in ERA, WHIP, FIP, and K%. He failed to surpass the 62nd percentile in both K% and chase rate last season.

Furthermore, the Chicago White Sox are a tough lineup to strike out. Through the first three contests of this series, Houston’s starting pitchers are averaging just 4.7 strikeouts per game.

In 2022, Chicago ranked seventh in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Its avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Garcia, a guy whom this lineup fares well against.

Across 59 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current White Sox roster boasts a .340 BA, .491 SLG, and .391 wOBA while possessing a mere 16.9 K%. Looking at Chicago’s projected starting lineup for Sunday, six of the eight hitters posted a K% south of 21% last season – excluding rookie Oscar Colas, who possesses a 16.7 K% through three games this year.

Finally, it's important to note that Garcia is likely going to be on a very short leash in this matchup. In a 162-game season, Houston knows that it is a marathon and not a sprint, especially for a team that is almost guaranteed to make the playoffs in its quest to defend its title.

The Astros want to save the arms of their starting pitchers, which is why not a single one of the first three starting pitchers in this series went deeper than five innings. With that in mind along with the other aforementioned variables, the Under is the play to make for Garcia’s strikeout prop.

My best bet: Luis Garcia Under 5.5 strikeouts (-124 at FanDuel)

White Sox vs Astros moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Astros’ moneyline in this contest but I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze at -172. Even though we're fading Garcia’s strikeout prop, he should still have a solid outing.

Meanwhile, right-hander Mike Clevinger is getting the nod on the mound for Chicago and is not trustworthy. In 2022, he ranked in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and K%.

In his career against Houston, Clevinger is just 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Both of these lineups are stacked, which should provide an entertaining affair on Sunday afternoon.

While the Astros possess pretty much every edge in this contest, -172 is too long against the improving White Sox.

White Sox vs Astros Over/Under analysis

I would also lean towards the Over in this contest but do not love the number at 8.5. Clevinger continues to struggle after missing the entire 2021 season following his second Tommy John surgery, which could be especially problematic against the powerhouse Houston lineup.

On the other hand, Garcia is a promising young pitcher who shows flashes of brilliance. However, he took a slight step back in 2022 and it will be important to see how he responds to start 2023.

Chicago also boasts a deep lineup, which has had plenty of success against Garcia. If I had to pick a total, the factor to solidify taking the Over is the fact that the forecast calls for 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left-center, which is a short wall in Houston in terms of distance at a mere 315 feet.

White Sox vs Astros game info

White Sox vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Mike Clevinger (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Coming back from two Tommy John surgeries is almost always a recipe for failure, which is something we saw last season for Clevinger. Across 23 appearances on the mound, he went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 4.97 FIP. His underlying metrics were even worse, ranking in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and K%. Mix these factors with the fact that he has notoriously struggled against his strong Astros lineup, it could be a quick afternoon for Clevinger.

Luis Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, Garcia heavily relies on his 4-seam and cutter, throwing those two pitches nearly 72% of the time. In fact, in terms of velocity and movement, Garcia set up similarly to Clevinger in 2022, which is something that would slightly concern me if I were an Astros fan. After some slight regression in 2022 compared to his rookie campaign, it will be interesting to see how Garcia responds to begin this year.

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Luis Garcia recorded five or fewer strikeouts in seven of his last 10 regular season starts in 2022. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros

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