After a low-scoring affair yesterday in the opener that didn’t see a run until the seventh inning, the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros will do it all again tonight.
World Baseball Classic team USA standout Lance Lynn gets the ball for the +125 visitors, while the underrated Cristian Javier starts for an Astros team that will look to get a notch in the win column after losing 3-2 last night.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Astros on March 31.
White Sox vs Astros odds
White Sox vs Astros predictions
Just because he was at the World Baseball Classic and made two starts, but that doesn’t mean Lance Lynn is fully stretched out. He threw just nine innings in the international tournament and was away from the White Sox for a long time as the U.S. reached the finals.
Lynn only threw 58 pitches vs. Venezuela and then returned to Spring Training and appeared in just 4 2/3 innings vs. the Reds on March 25. Considering he missed a good chunk of last season thanks to knee surgery and is now facing a lineup that can do damage despite a poor showing last night, it's a tough matchup for the right-hander.
Last season in his first nine starts following the surgery, Lynn averaged between 87 to 104 pitches but recorded 18 outs just three times. He also struggled out of the gate before heating up down the stretch.
However, because he was away from the team’s trainers for so long, there's a great chance that Lynn's leash is a little shorter today. THE BAT has him projected for 22.7 total batters and 15.9 outs on 88 pitches.
It’s a tough lineup and it certainly doesn't help that Lynn's ramp-up to the regular season has been awkward with the WBC.
My best bet: Lance Lynn Under 17.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
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White Sox vs Astros moneyline analysis
I’m happy taking Cristian Javier as a -145 favorite, as the Houston starter could be a Cy Young dark horse with his strikeout potential. Through his first three years with the Astros, he has 378 punchouts over 304 innings. Javier also had a chance to get more stretched out than Lance Lynn, as his time with the WBC was shorter-lived thanks to the Dominican getting bounced early.
The Chicago lineup has some names in it, but the inconsistencies with this group are well-documented. The White Sox took just one walk last night and finished 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position. They failed to get a big hit until late in the game and likely won’t be able to get two runs off of closer Ryan Pressly if needed.
The Houston lineup has some holes in it, but a batting order consisting of Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Abreu is still very tough to navigate.
I think the line has swung far enough that this is going to be the best price for the Astros, who remain the World Series betting favorites at +600.
White Sox vs Astros Over/Under analysis
Only five total runs were scored last night in a game that had a closing total of 7.5. The White Sox had plenty of chances to cash runners, but they stranded 10 runners and went 1-for-10 with RISP.
Today’s total sits at 7.5 and has seen a 10-point movement to the Over. Lynn projects to give up nearly three runs over 16 outs while Javier projects for 2.34 runs allowed over his 16.2 outs, per THE BAT.
Both starters can miss bats but they are also susceptible to the long ball. Javier is an extreme flyball pitcher (57%) who also can have command issues. Meanwhile, Lynn cut down the walks significantly last year (2.58 BB/9 to 1.41 BB/9). However, the veteran right-hander also didn’t miss a lot of bats vs Venezuela at the WBC, finishing with a low 22% CSW rate.
Both high-leverage pens got work yesterday and tonight's total will be won or lost on the play of both units. If the O/U reaches 8.0, I’d hit the Under. Both starters can miss bats and each bullpen possesses plenty of talent.
White Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, March 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Southwest, NBCS-CHI |
White Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Lance Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Lynn threw nine innings in the WBC and finished with a 0.78 WHIP, a .188 batting average against, and an 8/1 K/BB ratio. THE BAT has him finishing with a projected 2023 season ERA of 4.16.
Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Javier could have a big season for the Astros this year and is coming off a very good spring with a 2.13 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 10/1 K/BB ratio in 11.2 innings. THE BAT has him projected as the 25th pitcher in baseball by WAR this year with a 3.67 ERA.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The White Sox are 5-16 over their last 21 meetings in Houston. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros
