The battle of Chicago continues on the North Side as the Cubs host the White Sox at Wrigley Field tonight.
The White Sox took Game 1 of this brief two-game series thanks to Michael Kopech and five relievers holding the Cubs to one run.
Our MLB betting picks and predictions aim to determine whether or not the Cubbies can salvage a series split or if the South Siders will reign supreme in their invasion of Wrigley.
White Sox vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The White Sox opened as road favorites at -148 with the Cubs at +123 on the moneyline. That has since shifted ever so slightly to around White Sox -145 at several books as of Wednesday morning. The total opened between 6.0 (heavily juiced to the Over) and 7.0. It's hovering between 6.5 and 7.0 as of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 5/4/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Chicago, Marquee Sports Network
White Sox vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Lucas Giolito (0-1, 2.57 ERA): The start to Giolito's season was put on hold when he was placed on the injured list with an abdominal strain after his first outing. He's looked solid, though, especially when he struck out nine Twins over four innings of work in his first appearance after being activated.
Kyle Hendricks (1-2, 5.47 ERA): Hendricks, a career pitch-to-contact hurler, is getting blasted this season. His peripherals don't tell the tale of bad luck, either. His expected ERA is 5.73 and his FIP is 5.06. He's issuing more walks than he ever has before, which is not a great sign for a pitcher who relies so much on his command.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Andrew Vaughn LF (Questionable), Yoan Moncada 3B (Out), Eloy Jimenez OF (Out).
Cubs: Willson Contreras C (Questionable), Clint Frazier OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox's last five games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Cubs
White Sox vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Despite being on the road, the White Sox are the play in this matchup with Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks looking shaky through five outings to open the year in addition to him coming off the least effective season of his career in 2021. The normally-reliable right-hander has a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over his last 205 2-3 innings dating back to the beginning of 2021.
And while his fastball velocity hasn't changed much from his customary 87 mph, he's not locating, which was always the key to his success. He's issuing more walks, which is forcing him into the zone and resulting in hitters seeing BP fastballs in favorable counts. Now, the bulk of his struggles this season can be isolated into two specific starts. He allowed six earned runs on seven hits and four walks over 3 2-3 innings to the Pirates on April 13 and allowed another six earned runs on seven hits (including three home runs) over 4 1-3 innings against the Brewers in his most recent outing.
So, what version will we get today?
The White Sox entered the season with a ton of fanfare, especially surrounding its offense led by the likes of Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez, among others. Well, things haven't exactly gone according to plan as they are batting just .219 (24th in MLB) with a .274 OBP (28th) and .350 SLG (22nd).
Writing them off is foolish, though. Few teams are doing consistent damage at the plate this season as talk about a deadened ball continues into May. And the low OBP stems at least somewhat from Anderson and Robert, who take their hacks and ask questions later. In other words, they don't draw walks. That aggressive approach should be in the White Sox's favor tonight against Hendricks.
I don't love the juiced moneyline for the visitors and I'm not confident in the Cubs or Hendricks enough to take the underdogs. An aggressive White Sox lineup can do damage even when it's operating at less than 100%. With Giolito toeing the rubber and Anderson still crushing the ball from the leadoff spot, I like the White Sox to win this by at least a pair of runs.
Prediction: White Sox -1.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Giolito only has three outings under his belt in 2022, but he's looked solid from the outset despite his brief stint on the IL. He's still working on bringing up his fastball velocity, but it's not far off his career norms.
Even with Hendricks on the opposite side, the Over is not in play with any kind of confidence. The total is set between 6.5 and 7.0, with even money available at the former when taking the Under.
Offense is down league-wide and the 8.3 mph wind will be blowing in towards the plate at Wrigley Field this evening, which could further suppress hits. The White Sox should still have the advantage, but a final score of 4-2 or 5-1 isn't out of the question with Giolito starting and a solid White Sox bullpen backing him up if needed.
And after these teams combined for just four runs on Tuesday with a less impressive pitching duo on their respective hills, we're leaning on the Under once more.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Here we have a prime example of why it's important to shop around for props. Giolito's strikeouts prop is available at 6.5 across all books where it's listed. However, the vig differs wildly from book to book. The Over is juiced to -120 at FanDuel while it's all the way to +120 at bet365.
The right-hander is striking out a career-best 37.9% of batters with 22 strikeouts over 14 innings (14.4 K/9). He punched out nine over four innings against the Twins in his first start off the IL and another seven through six innings against the Angels last time out. The Cubs aren't the most strikeout-prone lineup, but they also don't avoid the K with great success, either. At 23.7%, the Cubs strike out about as frequently as those same Angels. And that actually increases against right-handers to 24.3%, which is 10th highest in MLB.
The White Sox burned through five relievers on Tuesday night, so expect Giolito to go a little longer to help preserve the bullpen. It's his third start since being activated so he's getting closer to being fully stretched out and he was given the green light to throw 99 pitches in his last outing so it looks like the shackles are off. As long as this is at plus money, take the bet.
Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120 at bet365)
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