There are eight games on the MLB betting board for Thursday, beginning with an afternoon clash between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians.
This is a make-up game for a postponed contest from August 21 and the White Sox enter Progressive Field as -150 road favorites as they try to close the gap on the Guardians atop the AL Central standings.
Here are my best free White Sox vs. Guardians MLB picks and predictions for September 15.
White Sox vs Guardians best odds
White Sox vs Guardians picks and predictions
The Guardians strike out less than any club in the majors but Lance Lynn's strikeouts total today is still too low at 4.5.
Lynn doesn't throw with elite velocity but his fastball spin rate is through the roof and his strikeout rate is in the 74th percentile of all MLB pitchers. His strikeouts per nine innings has also increased to 10.6 in the second half of the season after an 8.8 K/9 mark during the first half of the year.
With Lynn striking out at least five batters in each of his last 11 games — including a pair of outings against these very Guardians — I'm hammering the Over on his punchouts today.
Given the massive disparity in the starting pitching between the two sides and Chicago's edge at the plate (especially over the last few weeks), I'm also confident in the White Sox on the moneyline given the importance of these inter-divisional tilts as they try to make a postseason run.
My best bets: Lance Lynn Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150 at FanDuel)
White Sox moneyline (-155 at bet365)
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White Sox vs Guardians betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Guardians have won six in a row to take a four-game lead atop the AL Central with a 76-65 record. The White Sox are right behind them at 73-70 but will need to play better down the stretch if they want to make the postseason, especially with a looming three-game home set against the Guardians next week.
The White Sox were shut out at home yesterday against the Rockies but they typically hit the ball pretty well, ranking 13th in the majors with an OPS of .709 with that number surging to .790 over the last 15 days.
The Guardians lineup does a good job of making contact and avoiding strikeouts but their lack of power (lowest hard-hit rate in the majors) has resulted in an OPS (.694) that ranks 21st in MLB and a .381 slugging percentage that is 24th.
Cleveland does have a very good bullpen but that will be offset by starter Hunter Gaddis, who was just recalled from Triple-A. The 24-year-old was torched for eight runs in his major league debut last month and was promptly sent back down to the minors.
It says a lot that Gaddis was ranked as just the 19th-best prospect in the Guardians organization by Baseball America earlier this year and while he racks up plenty of strikeouts in the minors his 3.93 ERA at the Triple-A level isn't exactly impressive.
The White Sox will respond with righthander Lance Lynn who was third in the AL Cy Young race last after pitching to a sizzling 2.69 ERA in 28 starts. He has regressed this season, pitching to a 4.07 ERA but his control has been much better and he has turned things around lately, allowing just 19 hits and three earned runs in his last 35 innings pitched.
Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 8 but has ticked down to 7.5 at some books as of 9 a.m. ET. That might seem way too low when you consider Gaddis' only other big-league start but a few other factors show why that number is where it is.
Progressive Field tends to favor pitchers and a light breeze is blowing towards the infield today.
The Guardians plate just 3.89 runs per game at home and the Under has gone 23-9-1 in their last 33 games with the O/U set between 7 and 8.5. The Under has also cashed in the last five meetings between these division rivals.
That said, it won't take much for this game to go Over the total. Gaddis has a very low ground ball rate, which could be exposed by a White Sox lineup that ranks second in the majors in batting average (.261) and eighth in hard-hit rate.
White Sox vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Starting pitchers
Lance Lynn (6-5, 4.07 ERA): The two-time All-Star is having a bit of a down year but has been on fire lately, pitching to a 0.85 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP in his last five starts. He was shredded for eight runs in four innings against the Guardians earlier this season but has rebounded nicely with just one run allowed through 11 2-3 innings in his last two starts against the AL Central rivals.
Hunter Gaddis (0-1, 21.60 ERA): The 24-year-old has made just one prior appearance in the big leagues, an ugly start against the Astros on August 5 where he surrendered eight runs before getting the hook midway through the third inning. He has pitched to a 4.24 ERA in 14 starts at Double-A Akron while posting a 3.93 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A Columbus.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Guardians are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians
