2024 MLB Win Total Odds & Picks: Dodgers Are in A League of Their Own

The crack of the bat. The pop of a mitt. If you can believe it, spring training is already here and with Opening Day just over a month away, it’s time to start digging through MLB win total odds.

While training camp brings hope for every fanbase, not all teams are created equal, but whether your win total is a sky-high 103.5 or a rock-bottom 56.5, there is always betting value to be found in these uber-popular MLB futures bets. 

I break down the MLB odds for both the National and American Leagues and highlight my favorite MLB regular season win totals for the 2024 season.

2024 National League win total odds

Team	Total	Over	Under
Arizona Diamondbacks	83.5	-120	+100
Atlanta Braves	101.5	+100	-120
Chicago Cubs	84.5	-115	-105
Cincinnati Reds	82.5	+100	-120
Colorado Rockies	60.5	+100	-120
Los Angeles Dodgers	103.5	-115	-105
Miami Marlins	78.5	-115	-105
Milwaukee Brewers	76.5	-105	-115
New York Mets	82.5	+100	-120
Philadelphia Phillies	90.5	+100	-120
Pittsburgh Pirates	74.5	-110	-110
San Diego Padres	81.5	-105	-115
San Francisco Giants	81.5	+100	-120
St. Louis Cardinals	84.5	-115	-105
Washington Nationals	66.5	-105	-115

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 20, 2024.

NL win total breakdown

It should be no surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest regular season win total in MLB at 103.5. 

The Dodgers are coming off yet another season where they hit the century mark for wins, marking the fifth time in the last six full seasons they hit triple-digit victories.

And what have they done this offseason? They arguably got one of the biggest hauls in MLB free agency history, led first and foremost by superstar Shohei Ohtani.

But the NL won't be a one-horse race. If there is a team that can go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers it's the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are coming off an impressive 104-win campaign of their own led by NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., and have their sights set on a return to the World Series.

The next highest win total in the NL belongs to Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies at 90.5. The Phillies came up one game shy of a second consecutive NL Pennant.

But are we overlooking the team that actually won the NL last year? The Arizona Diamondbacks have a win total of 83.5 and have made some solid improvements this offseason.

NL win total best bets

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 103.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

This is probably about as square of a bet as you can make and even the loftiest projections have the Dodgers at about 102 wins. But I’m sorry, anything less than 104 wins for this Dodgers team feels like an underachievement. 

The Dodgers have notched 104 or more wins in four of their last six full seasons. Last year, they won 100 games and had no major subtractions from their roster. And I’m trying to think if the Dodgers made any notable acquisitions this offseason.

Oh, yeah. Just two-time AL MVP Ohtani, who they signed to the richest deal in MLB history in terms of total guaranteed dollars. They then paired Ohtani with prized Japan pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And they bolstered their rotation and lineup with Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez, respectively. It is an embarrassment of riches for the Dodgers. 

As I said, falling below this number, with this roster, means this team did not meet expectations.

Cincinnati Reds Over 81.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

The Canadian in me is sad that the Joey Votto era is over but there is finally reason to be excited about the Cincinnati Reds. This is a young group with a ton of upside. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are some of the names that stand out.

But then management went out and supported those young players by bringing in some solid veterans. Most notably Jeimer Candelario to hit in the middle of the lineup and Frankie Montas will give the rotation depth as a low-risk, high-reward starter.

This team won 82 games a season ago and, on paper, looks like a better one in 2024.

Miami Marlins Under 78.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

I almost feel bad picking the Miami Marlins to go Under this number. They are coming off a season where they went 84-78 and made the playoffs for goodness’ sake. But it feels like the front office in no way wanted to roll that momentum into continued success.

For starters, they haven’t signed anyone to a big-league contract this offseason. Not a single one. Not even an aging veteran. To make matters worse, they will be down their best pitcher and power hitter from a season ago as former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara will miss the entire season due to Tommy John surgery and Jorge Soler signed with San Francisco.

On top of that, Miami was technically one of the luckiest teams in baseball a season ago, going an MLB-best 33-14 in one-run games. Unfortunately, it’s a big regression to the mean for the Marlins in 2024.

2024 American League win total odds

Team	Total	Over	Under
Baltimore Orioles	90.5	-120	+100
Boston Red Sox	79.5	+100	-120
Chicago White Sox	63.5	-105	-115
Cleveland Guardians	78.5	-120	+100
Detroit Tigers	80.5	-115	-105
Houston Astros	92.5	-115	-105
Kansas City Royals	73.5	-120	+100
Los Angeles Angels	72.5	-105	-115
Minnesota Twins	86.5	-115	-105
New York Yankees	93.5	+100	-120
Oakland A's	56.5	-105	-115
Seattle Mariners	87.5	+100	-120
Tampa Bay Rays	84.5	-105	-115
Texas Rangers	89.5	-105	-115
Toronto Blue Jays	86.5	-115	-105

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 20, 2024.

AL win total breakdown

The more things change, the more things stay the same. Tell me if you've heard this one before. At 93.5, the New York Yankees have the highest projected win total in the American League.

This is the case despite coming off their worst season since 1992. And why's that? Well, it's the Yankees. Oh, and they traded for some guy named Juan Soto, who will help create a terrifying top-of-the-order with Aaron Judge.

The Yankees' biggest challenge will come from out the AL West. The Houston Astros have the AL's second-highest win total at 92.5, while the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers are at 89.5.

The Yankees will also have a challenge closer to home as the Baltimore Orioles will try to defend their AL East crown and have a win total of 90.5.

And it must be noted. After a historically bad 50-win season, the Oakland (Las Vegas?) A's have a win total of 56.5. That's the lowest I can remember seeing. But is that number too low even for the A's?

AL win total best bets

Tampa Bay Rays Over 84.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Every year is the same for the Tampa Bay Rays. Develop unheralded talent, particularly when it comes to starting pitching, trade off the valuable assets once it’s time for a contract extension, and overachieve in the win column. Lather, rinse, repeat. 

Last year, the Rays were projected for 88.5 wins and ended the year at 99-63. And Tampa Bay could be undervalued once again. Sportsbooks have the Rays at 84.5 wins for the 2024 season. But both FanGraphs and PECOTA projections have the Rays at 86 wins this year.

In their latest trade, the Rays got a good return for Tyler Glasnow in Ryan Pepiot, who should be a part of another strong Rays rotation. That said, it’s probably unlikely the Rays match the 99 wins from last season. But at 84.5, they still get the benefit of the doubt.

Baltimore Orioles Under 90.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Admittedly, I could look really stupid on this one. The Orioles are coming off an incredible year in which they won 101 games, have an exciting young core, and management is saying the time is now by trading for Corbin Burnes. 

But it is going to be incredibly hard to replicate that success in arguably the toughest division in baseball. And while the Burnes acquisition was huge. Thanks to injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means, the rotation is still pretty thin as spring training begins. And unless they make some additions, Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez are a bit of a mystery.

And despite last season's success, they still only ranked 11th in wRC+ and 14th in OPS. Losing reliever Felix Bautista hurts as well, even with Craig Kimbrel slotting in as his replacement. I think the Orioles are going to be good for a while, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s 90-win seasons from here on out. 

Minnesota Twins Under 87.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

The Minnesota Twins won 87 games last year on their way to an AL Central title. The problem with that is those numbers are padded by beating up on the worst division in baseball. Hell, the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals had just 117 combined wins.

That said, I think the overall play in the Central will be improved this season, with the only exception being the White Sox, making things tougher on the Twins this time around.

Another big part of the Twins' success from a season ago was thanks to their one-two punch at the top of their rotation in Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. But Gray has left in free agency and the Twins have done nothing to replace him. 

Simply put, I’m not sure the Twins are better without Gray pitching every five games while the competition has improved. Add in the fact that they traded away Jorge Polanco and are hoping Edouard Julien can effectively take his place, so I’ll take the Under.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning 92+ games instead of falling at 91 or less. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the OVER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the UNDER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

• OVER 92.5 WINS (-115)
• UNDER 92.5 WINS (-105)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

MLB Win Total FAQ

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