MLB Win Total Picks Based On The Bat X Projections: Brotherly Love

THE BAT X uses Statcast data (ex. barrels, exit velocity, launch angle, sprint speed, and several variations of each). THE BAT is the older system that's been around since before Statcast was developed. Derek Carty created THE BAT X a couple of years ago by using the original methodology of THE BAT and layering on Statcast data. It's only available for hitters so far, the pitcher version is still in development. FantasyPros recently showed that THE BAT X was the most accurate standalone system in 2021 (and THE BAT was next in line).

Win total odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 4, 2022.

2022 MLB win total picks based on THE BAT X Projections

• Pick: Phillies Over 85.5
• Pick: Reds Over 74.5
• Pick: Tigers Under 77.5
• Pick: Cubs Under 75.5

Philadelphia Phillies Over 85.5 (-115)

The Phillies feature the reigning National League MVP in Bryce Harper and the front office has gone to great lengths to provide him with adequate offensive support by signing sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos this offseason to help boost a lineup that already includes Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorius. Infield prospect Bryson Stott has hit the piss out of the baseball throughout spring training, likely earning him the Opening Day start at third base. 

A much-improved bullpen (on paper) and a solid rotation anchored by Aaron Nola and 2022 Cy Young finalist Zack Wheeler and the Phillies at least look poised to end their lengthy postseason drought (they last played a playoff game in 2011). And at least one of their chief rivals, the New York Mets, has been weakened by a shoulder injury to ace Jacob deGrom that will prevent him from pitching for an unknown amount of time. 

THE BAT X projects 93.1 wins for Philadelphia, a discrepancy of 7.6 in favor of the Over, which is the widest margin between the projections and sportsbook totals available. 

Cincinnati Reds Over 74.5 (-105)

I know, I know, the Reds are in total teardown mode after trading Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez this winter and also lost the aforementioned Castellanos to the Phillies in free agency. As counterintuitive as it may seem, however, Cincinnati might not be as dead in the water as they seem at first blush.

Castellanos hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs in 138 games (585 plate appearances), so that's admittedly a big void to fill. The Reds have so far brought in Tommy Pham and Colin Moran via free agency and will be looking for bounce-back campaigns from Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel, both of whom missed considerable time due to injury in 2021. Carty's projections — via the players' FanGraphs pages — are at least somewhat bullish on that crew supplementing lost value on the offensive side of things. Moustakas is projected to hit 24 homers while slashing .243/.315/.457 for 1.6 WAR. Meanwhile, Pham (19 HR, .270/.367/.459, 2.2 WAR) and former can't-miss prospect Senzel (10 HR, 11 SB, .274/.335/.441, 1.7 WAR) could also be ready for solid campaigns.

As for Gray and Wade Miley — the latter was claimed off waivers by the Cubs in November — Cincinnati will give top pitching prospect Hunter Greene a look in the rotation to start the year and Nick Lodolo might be right there with him. 

From a betting perspective, all this means the Reds are probably being a little too undervalued and betting the Over on their win total could pay off huge.

Detroit Tigers Under 77.5 (-110)

The Tigers are a popular pick to take the next step in their development this season based on the arrival of slugging first baseman Spencer Torkelson, the signings of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, and the expectation that Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal improve further from their rookie campaigns.

The overall lineup still leaves something to be desired. Miguel Cabrera is a year older and hasn't been himself in several seasons. And Baez's production is widely varied. He is undoubtedly talented — a former MVP finalist — but he strikes out an ungodly amount of the time and doesn't draw walks. His defense has been a selling point, but is that enough? Basically, there are too many variables to put too much trust in the Tigers rising through the AL Central ranks. 

THE BAT X projects a 69.9-win campaign. If they reach those 70 victories, Detroit still falls well short of its sportsbook total. And yes, the Tigers finished 2021 with a 75-85 record so it may seem strange to expect a worse outcome with a theoretically better roster, but division rivals like the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals are both improved. The division is still comparatively weak to, say, the AL East, but it's not a complete joke like it has been, except for perhaps the Cleveland Guardians.

We're comfortable betting the Under.

Chicago Cubs Under 75.5 (-110)

Folks, the Cubs are bad. No, not quite Pirates-level, apocalyptically bad, but terrible all the same. It could be argued that they punched above their weight class en route to a 71-91 record in 2021 (68-94 Pythagorean record per Baseball Reference), but they still had the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez for at least the first half of the season. In the second half, the Cubs fell apart with a 27-45 record.

Now, yes, Chicago signed right-hander Marcus Stroman and Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki to lucrative deals, but is that going to be enough to move the needle? Carty's system doesn't seem to think the offense will provide enough support — even in a hilariously bad NL Central — to make much of a difference. Other additions like Jonathan Villar, Clint Frazier, and Nick Madrigal (who was injured when acquired at the trade deadline last summer) may not mean much this summer as the team navigates what fans hope will be a short-term rebuild. Outfield prospect Brennen Davis may make his debut this summer, for example.

Still, the projection has the Cubs winning 7.5 fewer games than their O/U total. The future might be bright, but that's down the road.