After a grueling 162-game schedule and several rounds of playoffs, the MLB season is now down to two teams.
World Series odds have the Houston Astros listed as the betting favorites to win their second title in five seasons. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies are underdogs once again after vanquishing the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres in consecutive series.
Our World Series betting preview breaks down the current odds, and each team's respective journey to the Fall Classic, and includes a prediction on how all this will wrap up.
Don't forget to keep an eye on our MLB picks page as we get closer to Game 1 for game predictions and a full selection of MLB props.
Odds to win the 2022 World Series
| Team | Odds to win the World Series |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | -185 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +160 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on October 27, 2022.
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The Phillies' road to the World Series
The Philadelphia Phillies are back in the World Series for the first time since losing to the Yankees in six games in 2009. This year also ended a streak of 10 straight seasons missing out on postseason baseball. And it kind of came out of nowhere.
The Phillies were listed at +2,500 to win the Fall Classic before the 2022 season commenced. By August 1, those odds lengthened to +5,000. And even after going 18-11 in August, the Phillies continued their uneven overall play with a 14-17 record to close the season. At 87-75, they had the second-worst record of all 12 playoff teams — the Tampa Bay Rays went 86-76. They finished a distant third in the NL East behind a pair of 101-win behemoths in the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. And yet, after the dust has settled, the Phillies have won the NL pennant.
And they've been underdogs every stretch of the way during the postseason and looked absolutely cooked until the final inning of Game 1 vs. the Cardinals in the opening round. Trailing 2-0, the Phillies plated six runs in the ninth and took that contest 6-3 before blanking St. Louis in Game 2. The Cardinals were something of a paper tiger, though, and the NLDS against the defending champion Braves would seemingly be a different story altogether. Well, after splitting Games 1 and 2, the Phillies outscored the Braves 17-4 and stunned Atlanta en route to the NLCS.
There, the Phillies again split the first two games against the Padres before rattling off three straight victories. Bryce Harper sealed the deal with a two-run, go-ahead home run — his fifth dinger of the postseason — in the eighth inning of Game 4.
BRYCE HARPER IS A PHILADELPHIA PHILLIE pic.twitter.com/UjLTijwIqe
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 23, 2022
One of the keys to the team's perhaps unexpected success has been the addition of key pieces on offense to offer lineup protection for the two-time NL MVP. The front office signed veteran sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos last offseason, making it more difficult to pitch around Harper. And even if Castellanos has largely struggled, he can still show up with the stick. He did hit .313 with five RBI in the ALDS vs. Atlanta, so there's that.
They also have a formidable one-two punch atop the pitching rotation in co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. And even though Nola got stomped by the Padres, he was borderline unhittable vs. St. Louis and Atlanta.
World Series Game 1 odds
The Astros' road to the World Series
It was a very different story for the Houston Astros. Houston entered the season as one of the favorites to win the World Series and proceeded to run roughshod over the competition en route to earning the American League's top record at 106-56, one win shy of the franchise record 107 from 2019.
The re-emergence of ace Justin Verlander hasn't been the whole story, but it's a big part of it. The 39-year-old missed all of 2021 and was limited to just six innings in his lone start of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery. Plenty of pitchers return from this procedure but it often takes time to regain past form, if it even comes back. Well, we got vintage Verlander in 2022 as the right-hander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts in 175 innings — and that's with time missed due to a calf injury.
Boasting the most balanced roster in MLB, Houston won the AL West by a whopping 16 games over the Seattle Mariners and promptly swept them in the ALDS like they were nothing more than a minor inconvenience. After stumbling to an 11-10 start in April, the Astros bounced back to go 21-8 in May and never looked back. They took over the division lead on May 17 and held it the rest of the way.
World Series X-factors
Phillies X-factor: The bullpen
The margin for error at this stage of the game is razor-thin, especially when facing a lineup as daunting as Houston's. Phillies relievers combined for a 4.27 ERA during the regular season, which ranked 23rd in MLB. Regardless of who has been at the back end of the bullpen in recent years, the relief corps has remained the franchise's biggest bugaboo. While a 3.71 FIP suggests that some of their shortcomings this summer were due to some misfortune, it was still the biggest cause for concern entering the postseason.
With the shortened schedule, however, the Phillies have been able to get a little creative with which arms are being used to close out games. Nola and Wheeler will remain in the rotation no matter what, but if this series gets down to the nitty-gritty, Philly could deploy Ranger Suarez and Noah Syndergaard in high-leverage relief situations.
Suarez recorded the final two outs of Game 5 of the NLCS — needing just two pitches to do so — after starting Game 3 two days earlier. Syndergaard has been used more sparingly in the postseason, making one start and two relief appearances.
Shortening the schedule in the postseason so Philly doesn't need a five-man rotation has served to bolster the bullpen, which was already missing closer Corey Knebel. If the Phillies have any hope of winning the World Series, the bullpen will need to be airtight against the best offense they'll have met this October.
Astros X-factor: Depth
The Astros are simply a perfectly constructed team. Consider, too, that they've lost key contributors like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, George Springer, and Carlos Correa to free agency in recent seasons but keep on chugging along. This is the platonic ideal to emerge from years of tanking. The Astros found the right talent, built from within, and made some savvy trades along the way to create a team designed to contend in both the short and long term.
With Correa gone, rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena seamlessly slotted into his spot. And while he struggled offensively down the stretch of the regular season, he re-emerged as a threat with the stick in the postseason. He hit two key home runs against the Yankees and earned ALCS MVP honors after slashing .353/.353/.824 over the four-game sweep.
Jeremy Peña's third homer of the postseason gets the #Astros even! pic.twitter.com/wbMus9dVSh
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 24, 2022
This was largely a result of the Yankees pitching around sluggers like Yordan Alvarez — who was acquired in one of those savvy trades with the Dodgers in 2016 — and subsequently serving up more hittable pitches to the rookie star. Worth noting: Alvarez is currently the betting favorite in the early World Series MVP odds table.
If the Phillies neutralize Pena and Alvarez, they'll still have to contend with Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Trey Mancini, and Yuli Gurriel. Oh, and lest we forget eight-time All-Star Jose Altuve, who's hitting just .094 this postseason. Sleep on him at your own risk.
Houston's depth isn't limited to its lineup, either. This pitching staff is unbelievable. Even if you survive Verlander, the Astros will simply follow him up with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. with several capable starters like Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Hunter Brown available in relief.
Houston's team ERA of 2.80 in the regular season was second only to the Dodgers, and the bullpen ERA (also 2.80) was best in the bigs. Closer Ryan Pressly dealt with some injury issues in the season, but then Hector Neris, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu, and others were there to pick up the pieces. And lefty Will Smith, who was left off the ALCS roster, could be added ahead of Friday's Game 1.
World Series prop pick
As much as I like the underdog story, I think the Phillies will meet their match in the Fall Classic. The Astros are too deep and too explosive to be held down for long. Even when it looked like they were toast in Game 1 of the ALDS after Verlander uncharacteristically surrendered six earned runs in four innings, Houston rallied to score five in the final two frames to come away with the win. This really set the tone for that series and the postseason to follow as the Astros have yet to lose a single game in the playoffs.
The Phillies will try to steal a game in Houston to open the series by likely pitching both Nola and Wheeler, but it's not like they give Philadelphia an advantage. Verlander will counter in Game 1 and Valdez was one of the most reliable arms in baseball during the regular season. And as mentioned, getting to Houston's elite bullpen doesn't really swing this in Philly's favor, either.
While it would also be pretty stunning to watch the Astros roll through the postseason without dropping a single game, calling for another sweep is an extremely tall order, especially when the Phillies are very much built for playoff baseball. The bullpen is less shaky with the option to use starters in relief, and Philly has looked especially strong at home (unbeaten at Citizens Bank Park).
But expecting the Astros' well-oiled machine to crumble more than once is foolish. Houston is favored at -185 on the moneyline to win the series regardless of how many games are played, but I'm taking the Astros to win in five games at +500. However, if you are feeling bold, an Astros sweep is available at +850.
Pick: Astros in 5 (+500 at DraftKings)
