World Series Odds and Staff Picks 2023: Doubt the Diamondbacks at Your Own Peril

The World Series begins tonight, with the matchup everybody expected as the Arizona Diamondbacks face the Texas Rangers!

Texas opens the series as the favorite, based on the World Series odds,  but that doesn't mean the Covers staff are in total agreement on who will win the Fall Classic.

We had our best in-house baseball betting minds search through the MLB odds and give their World Series predictions, including who they think will win, who will claim World Series MVP, and who the series X-factor could be.

Check out where our crew is leaning this year, and then feel free to follow along — and connect with us on X to share your best MLB picks for the 2023 World Series!

Also, make sure to check out our World Series Game 1 predictions and Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Game 1 prop picks ahead of tonight's first pitch.

2023 World Series predictions

Writer	Winner	MVP	X-factor
Josh Inglis	Diamondbacks	Geraldo Perdomo	Perdomo
Andrew Caley	Diamondbacks	Gabriel Moreno	D-backs bullpen
Jared Hochman	Rangers	Corey Seager	Nathan Eovaldi
Jason Wilson	Diamondbacks	Tommy Pham	D-backs keeping it simple
Robert Criscola	Diamondbacks	Merrill Kelly	Max Scherzer

Covers 2023 World Series picks

Josh Inglis, Betting Analyst (@Covers_josh)

• World Series pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (+155 )
• MVP: Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks (+6,600 )
• X-factor: Perdomo

I'm taking the +155 for the Diamondbacks. They are young, which can be in their favor, and they've been solid on the road — any team that can take down the Phillies at home in back-to-back games has my attention.

They also fared well vs. some solid pitching in the NLCS and have a ton of speed that can tilt things in their favor. I'm always fond of SS value in these series MVPs: Jeremy Pena won it last year as a long shot and finished 10-for-25 with a homer and three RBI.

Geraldo Perdomo is paying +6,600 and just went 8-for-24 with a homer, two RBI, and a stolen base. If he can contribute defensively and turn this order over, he has a legitimate shot to win the award and be the series' biggest X-Factor. A move up the lineup might also be coming after a .810 OPS in the postseason.

Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst (@Covers_Caley)

• World Series pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (+155 )
• MVP: Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks (+2,000 )
• X-factor: Arizona's bullpen

This postseason doesn’t really make sense; so let’s keep that theme going and take the plus money with the Diamondbacks to win. Arizona has the front-end starting pitching to keep this magical run going, and while the lineup isn’t full of superstars... it's balanced one through nine.

When it comes to World Series MVP odds, I feel like I’m always asking myself, “Who is this year’s Steve Pearce?” You know, the not-obvious choice guy who got hot at the right time.

I want someone with longer odds who can get hot and hit some dingers — and just because I’m a glutton for punishment as a Blue Jays fan, I’m picking Gabriel Moreno: He already has three dingers and nine RBIs this postseason and is giving us 20/1 odds.

The starting pitching should be close to a push but I think Arizona has an edge when it comes to relievers. Kevin Ginkel has come out of nowhere to lead a D-backs bullpen that all of a sudden looks dominant, while the Rangers bullpen is a little more suspect — and that could be the difference in this series.

Jared Hochman, Senior Publishing Editor (@JLHoch)

• World Series pick: Texas Rangers (-125 )
• MVP: Corey Seager, Rangers (+550 )
• X-factor: Nathan Eovaldi

Looking at my peers here, it seems I'm the chalky one of the group... and you know what? I'm OK with that.

I said at midseason that the Rangers were a team not to be slept on, and while the pitching isn't as sturdy as I'd like, this team can rake top-to-bottom... and imagine if Marcus Semien finally remembers how to hit! I think the Rangers are just a little too deep and can outslug the D-backs.

The team is led by superstar Corey Seager, who hit .327 with 33 HR in the regular season, then followed that by hitting .333 with a .483 OBP in postseason action — while also hitting .333 with RISP. The biggest stars tend to rise in the biggest moments, and while Seager is among the shortest prices to win the award, I'm still happy with a player of his caliber at +550.

Max Scherzer is an obvious candidate for X-factor, with his health being a true wild card, but I believe he'll be ineffective. Instead, I've got my eyes on veteran Nathan Eovaldi, who had a strong regular season before struggling in September... then has rebounded to go 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 26 postseason innings this year and will get the ball in Game 1.

He has a career 2.87 ERA in the playoffs and has shown he can come out of the bullpen too if needed — don't be surprised if he ends up being Texas' top starter (and possibly even key reliever) throughout this series (he's also available as long as 16/1 for MVP... just saying).

Jason Wilson, Publishing Editor (@Jason_C_Wilson)

• World Series pick: Diamondbacks (+155 )
• MVP: Tommy Pham, Diamondbacks (+3,000 )
• X-factor: Death by 1,000 hits + Arizona running wild

I’m done doubting the Diamondbacks. The Rangers' potent offense can crush you 1-9, but the D-backs aren’t to be dismissed as a worthy adversary: They don’t hit home runs at the same torrid pace but they struck out at the fourth-lowest clip in MLB this season.

They make a lot of contact — led by rookie Corbin Carroll — and turn singles into doubles with great speed, ranking second in stolen bases (166). Without Jacob deGrom and counting on a Scherzer, who has clearly lost something, the Rangers don’t have the same swing-and-miss prowess on the mound, relying more on pitch-to-contact style hurlers, which will hurt them as the Diamondbacks chip away and eventually take advantage of a suspect relief corps.

Tommy Pham didn’t do much in the NLCS apart from a solo homer, but he consistently hits in the middle of the lineup and he was acquired at the deadline to specifically provide this kind of depth. Pham historically makes a lot of contact and hits the absolute crap out of the ball when he does. There’s value to be had on him to win MVP over the likes of Carroll and Ketel Marte, both of whom have stronger name recognition and, therefore, much shorter odds.

Robert Criscola, MLB Contributor (@itsgood2beking)

• World Series pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (+155 )
• MVP: Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks (+6,600 )
• X-factor: Max Scherzer

The Diamondbacks have improved dramatically on all fronts in October. The NLCS MVP Marte is piping-hot (.986 OPS) and teammates Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Carroll, Perdomo, and Moreno ended the series a combined 27-for-71 (.380).

Zac Gallen was one of the game’s best starters in the regular season and looks to find his best postseason stride for Arizona, but Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt have stepped up in his stead — both are worth a sprinkle at 66/1 to win World Series MVP, but Kelly is my top choice.

The veteran has earned a longer leash, thanks to his 3.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last two seasons, and the Texas native bounced back from a poor NLCS Game 2 to limit Philly to one run over five frames in Game 6... and he’s fanned 19 batters over his last 17 innings.

The Rangers went all-in when they added Max Scherzer midseason, but his late-season injury was a bitter pill. However, they made it this far with Scherzer only pitching 6 2/3 innings over two ALCS starts, where he authored a 9.45 ERA.

Obviously, Scherzer is capable of pitching better than that — can he fix himself in time?

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