The flip-flop nature of the World Series continued last night when the Houston Astros tied the series at two apiece with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Houston won 5-0 in a game in which they became the first team to throw a no-hitter in the Fall Classic since 1956 when Don Larsen of the New York Yankees tossed a perfect game vs. the Brooklyn Dodgers. Our MLB props went 1 of 3, which was our worst showing of the World Series thus far. It moved us to 8 of 12 overall. Let's get back to winning ways tonight.
Will Justin Verlander fade in a second straight World Series start? Can the Phillies get their offense back? Find that out in our MLB picks for Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies in Game 5 of the World Series.
Astros vs Phillies prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Phillies Game 5 props
Verlander's strikeout total is too high
Today features Justin Verlander on the mound, which means you will see that highly publicized stat again. Verlander is now 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA for his career in the World Series. That doesn't have much to do with this handicap, but it's a nice feather in the cap. This handicap is based on my projections; they have Verlander going Under his listed strikeout total, priced at around -177. That's a considerable edge on the current number and one I'll happily grab at plus money.
In his first matchup against the Phillies, Verlander threw for five strikeouts over five innings. He got to 90 pitches, and just 52 were thrown for strikeouts. That, in essence, is the foundation of this handicap. There's a slight adjustment for a pitcher going on the road, particularly given the Phillies' sparkling record at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. Still, in essence, patience should pave the way for the Phillies. Philly batters made contact on 43 of the 52 Verlander pitches they swung at in Game 1. Assuming Philly doesn't suddenly change its approach at the plate, this one is at least a full strikeout too high.
I expect the Phillies to continue to be productive at "seeing" Verlander. They got a good amount of contact against him just a week ago, and it's hard to see that changing. Philly is at home in a virtual must-win game where, in theory, Verlander should only have to work harder. This number is too high.
Justin Verlander prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120)
Harper's hit parade
The Phillies went hitless last night and now look to strike a return blow after being punched in the mouth. So why not take the best player and the guy who has had an outstanding postseason to get a hit? It's a juicy number, but we're backing Bryce Harper to make an impact tonight.
Verlander has made his career with an electric fastball, but that comes with some negatives. He's giving up the highest hard-hit rate on his fastballs at any point in his career. Harper is one of the best fastball hitters on the Phillies roster. But more important to this handicap, he has the highest hard-hit rate on the team.
Harper is the most likely candidate to hit a home run and to go over his total bases tonight. I may sprinkle those plays as well. However, for our standard bet, we'll stick with our most significant edge. We have a hit priced at -245, which gives us a considerable advantage over the current number.
Bryce Harper prop: To record a hit (-165)
Tucker takes off
I'll target this one more time. The Astros have been among the most aggressive teams in the postseason regarding stealing bases. Tonight, they get one of the best targets in baseball to steal against on the mound.
Noah Syndergaard has the most stolen bases in baseball against him, with 56. Teams have attempted to steal a base against him approximately once every 4 1-3 innings. The most likely candidate to do it tonight is easily Kyle Tucker. For starters, getting on base seems expected, as he has the highest OPS in this World Series for any player. Secondly, he leads the Astros in stolen bases with 39. We'll play the numbers here and bet he grabs one tonight.
Our projections have this priced at +410, making it much less likely to not occur than to occur. However, this number has plenty of value, and I'll happily take it.
Kyle Tucker Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+450)
