While it may have taken a few twists and turns to get here, we eventually arrived at the same spot we thought we would. Tonight, the Houston Astros will host the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS. The winner of the seven-game marathon will go to the World Series.
The Yankees advanced after a five-game series with the Cleveland Guardians ended yesterday in the Bronx. New York had to win two straight to stave off elimination. The road for the Astros was much more manageable, sweeping the Seattle Mariners, and winning the final matchup by a score of 1-0 in a divisional series record 18-inning game.
Who prevails in Game One? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros. Also, take a deeper dive with our Yankees vs. Astros trends and insights courtesy of EV Analytics.
Yankees vs Astros best odds
Yankees vs Astros picks and predictions
I want to focus on one narrative and one narrative alone in this matchup.
Justin Verlander is coming off one of the worst postseason starts of his career, and I don't think he will repeat it. That start came in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Mariners when he was lit up for six earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings.
I'm backing him to atone for this rarity and will be dipping into several markets. We can find "Earned Runs allowed" Under 1.5 at +125 on DraftKings, Yankees Under 1.5 in the first five innings at -140 on DraftKings, and "To Record a Win" at +200 on BetMGM. I'll grab all three of these. My favorite is where my projections see the most significant edge, which is in the strikeout market.
Verlander's strikeout prop sits at an over/under of 5.5 on FanDuel. He went over this number in four of his last five postseason starts prior to his Game 1 meltdown in the ALDS. And even though he was knocked around in that outing, he was on pace to exceed this had he not been pulled. Verlander only saw the Yankees once this season and had just three strikeouts, however, much of that was a product of bad luck. That game saw a ton of 2-2 count situations where the Yankees uncharacteristically fought off pitches and put them in play.
It shouldn't be much of a surprise, but the likely Cy Young winner has posted a run-value of -24 on his fastball. It's one of the best in baseball. Yankee hitters will sit dead red on Verlander to try to have a chance. That's where the problems of a slider that has produced a 34% whiff rate and a curve that has produced a 27% whiff rate arise.
The slider, in particular, is problematic for this Yankees lineup. It's been the Achilles heel for players like Aaron Judge, who has a 37% whiff rate against it. As a collective, the Yankees lineup could have five players with a whiff rate higher than the one Verlander has produced with this pitch, with sluggers like Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson struggling against it the most. I'll also be looking at the Unders on their base props as a consequence of this.
My numbers have this prop priced at -180 and we can find nearly a 10% edge on that number at FanDuel at the time of this writing.
My best bet: Justin Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 at FanDuel)
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Yankees vs Astros ALCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 New York Yankees |
+175 |
 Houston Astros |
-210 |
Yankees vs Astros moneyline analysis
This one opened with the Astros as firm favorites at around -177, but that was still a take for most bettors. Since then, the number has fallen from -180 to -190 on most books. You'd imagine it seems pretty straightforward for the early money bettors, right? Forget Houston's overwhelming pitching mismatch here, let's look at the situation.
The Yankees just got off a grueling five-game series against the Guardians. Most of the games — minus the final — were fought tooth and nail, being decided by the thinnest of margins. Also, multiple rain delays occurred, further complicating the pitching schedule in this series and forcing New York's rhythm to be broken.
As a result, the Yankees arrive in Houston much less rested and with a bullpen stretched to its fullest. Meanwhile, the Astros (who already won seven more games than the Yankees in the regular season) start this series off of a four-day rest. After all that, how could you not back the Astros here? It's tough to argue with any of that. It's also tough to quantify how much rust from the Astros lay-off will factor in here. It has to count for something, though.
I can't play Houston at the current number, even though that's the side I'm leaning toward. I would need around -155 to back the Astros, and that number is nowhere to be found. If the Yankees spring out to an early lead, I may look at Houston's live market, but otherwise, I'll stay away.
Yankees vs Astros Over/Under analysis
This total seems pretty fair to me. Some differentials have been the most interesting in watching the betting market. Some books opened at 7 then quickly went to 6.5. Some opened at 6.5 and then went to 7. As if writing, most books have this total set at 6.5.
I'm going to grab the Under. Jameson Taillon is obviously the overmatched pitcher here but delivering an impressive performance isn't necessarily out of the question. I've written regularly this season that while he may not be a dominant pitcher, he consistently keeps his teams in games. He can lean on his breaking balls in this matchup to get through innings and his curveball has produced a batting average of .168.
That should be something he has great success with in this matchup. All Astros' metrics go down when they see the curveball. If Taillon can stay out of high-leverage situations, he should be able to keep the Astros at bay with his breaking pitches.
It's essentially on Taillon to keep this one Under, and I think he'll do enough. Verlander should have a great start. He matches up well against the Yankees lineup, which is why he only allowed one earned run in seven innings the last time he saw them. In addition, he should be highly motivated to avenge his previous start.
Yankees vs Astros trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros
Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 19, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA): This will be the first postseason start of the season for Taillon. His overall record on the season has been a bit lucky, but it's a product of his consistency. He only allowed more than five runs once this season, and that comes while playing in a division full of power hitters. Taillon's most significant issue is simply allowing too much contact. His xBA is one of the worst in the league, while his chase rate and BB rate are near elite.
Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA): Verlander's fastball velocity is one of the best in baseball, and his K rate is in the Top 10% among qualified pitchers. However, Verlander is coming off a rare start where he allowed six earned runs in four innings to the Seattle Mariners. It was a start so rare that you have to go all the way back to his second year in the league to find a similar postseason outing.
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