Coming off taking two of three from the Houston Astros, the Toronto Blue Jays have yet to lose a series this season, yet they’ll be home underdogs when they begin an important four-game set with the Evil Empire itself, the New York Yankees.
The AL East-best Yankees enter this game on a nine-game winning streak, and while that’s remarkable, when you compare their schedule to that of Toronto's, you can question which team has been more impressive of late.
So, who has the betting edge in the opener? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on May 2.
Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened this AL East battle at around EVEN money (+100) and that’s where they are as of Monday afternoon. The total has also held steady, still sitting at the opening number of 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 5/2/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, YES
Yankees vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (0-1, 2.70 ERA): Montgomery has pitched well over his last three starts, allowing just three earned runs on 10 hits over 16 2-3 innings of work. He missed the Blue Jays when they were at Yankee Stadium in early April.
Ross Stripling (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Stripling began the season as a long reliever and spot starter for the Jays, but an injury to Hyun-jin Ryu has forced him into the rotation and he’s made the most of it. He’ll make his fourth-straight start tonight after pitching to a 2.77 ERA in his last three.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Zack Britton P (Out), Joey Gallo LF (Out), Domingo German P (Out), Ben Rortvedt C (Out), Stephen Ridings P (Out).
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), Ryan Borucki P (Out), Cavan Biggio 2B (Out), Nate Pearson P (Out), Hyun-jin Ryu P (Out), Tayler Saucedo P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Yankees' last four road games when facing a right-handed starter and is 8-2-2 in the Blue Jays' last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Yes, the New York Yankees enter this game as winners of nine in a row and are in first place in the American League East. So, yes, I can see why they are favored tonight (it is the Yankees, after all). But as impressive as the Yanks’ winning streak and the record is, they have done it by beating up on the likes of the Orioles, Tigers, Guardians, and Royals.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have gone 15-8, never losing a series this season, while going 11-6 against postseason teams from a season ago. And they’ve done this despite some key injuries (Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen specifically), and while not being anywhere near as potent as offense as those in Toronto expect them to be once all is said and done this season.
But despite the perceived offensive struggles, the Blue Jays still rank eighth in MLB when it comes to OPS and is tied with the Yankees for the most home runs hit this season with 31.
Not shockingly, 23 of those home runs for the Bronx Bombers have been Yankee Stadium-aided and have hit just eight on the road.
They could be hard-pressed to go yard against Stripling tonight as well. The Jays’ right-hander has been solid since re-joining the Jays’ rotation. Stripling has been mixing his three main pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) well to keep hitters off-balance, and as a result, he induces a lot of soft contact.
He ranks in the 94th percentile of both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, which should be useful in neutralizing the Yankees’ bats.
Montgomery has also pitched well of late and has a solid expected ERA of 3.03 but the Jays gave him some problems last season. In two starts against them, he allowed seven runs on 10 hits, including two dingers over 10 innings of work.
Now, Montgomery can certainly have a good game tonight considering how hit-or-miss the Jays’ bats have been over the first month of the season, but the Yankees are favored here because of the winning streak and their name. Getting the Jays as home dogs here is a great value.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (+100 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
As you can tell by the moneyline analysis, you can probably guess which way we’ll be leaning when it comes to the total.
As noted with the home runs, the Yankees have been a much more potent offense at home than on the road, averaging 4.0 runs per game, while ranking 17th and 15th in batting average and OPS, respectively.
And while the Blue Jays have had success against Montgomery and were known for crushing lefties in 2021, that hasn’t been the case so far this season, where they rank 19th and 18th in batting average and OPS.
Plus, these teams have already played four high-intensity and close games this season, with three of them falling Under the number.
It may only be May, but it feels like the Jays have played in a lot of postseason-type atmospheres already. Tonight should be no different, so we’ll lean towards the Under 8.5.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
It feels like Bo Bichette has had enough highs and lows for the entire season, and it’s only May 2. The Blue Jays shortstop has struggled at both the plate and in the field at times.
He’s hitting just .214 with three home runs and has already committed five errors, but his last two home runs have been big ones, giving the Jays late leads against the Red Sox and Astros.
Bo’s problem at the dish is that it appears he has expanded his strike zone. He has always been known as a wild swinger, but this season he ranks in the second percentile when it comes to chase rate.
That said, he’s still making a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 89th percentile or higher in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. So, he’s been a bit unlucky at the dish and actually has an expected batting average of .286.
He's shown some signs of breaking out, recording hits in seven of his last nine games, including those two big dingers. On top of that, he’s crushed Montgomery in his career, going 4-for-8 with a double and two homers.
Bet on Bichette to make some solid contact in this one and to go Over his total bases and maybe even consider a little sprinkle on him to do deep in this one at +650.
Pick: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
