The Toronto Blue Jays wasted an outstanding start from Alek Manoah as they continued to struggle to cash in runners, and now, they’ll be MLB betting underdogs as they try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the rival New York Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers have tallied 11 consecutive wins and go for their 12th in a row when Nestor Cortes toes the rubber against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. Can the Yankees cash yet another moneyline or do the Blue Jays have value as a home dog?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Wednesday, May 4.
Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
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The Blue Jays opened this American League East battle as about even money underdogs, but bettors quickly backed the Yankees, moving the line to Jays +125. The total hit the board at 8.0 juiced to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 5/4/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Sportsnet
Yankees vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nestor Cortes Jr. (1-0, 1.31 ERA): Cortes has been outstanding for the Yankees to start the season. The lefty mixes speeds and his delivery to keep hitters off-balance, and has allowed just four runs over his first four starts while striking out 28 batters compared to just three walks.
Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 5.52 ERA): Kikuchi’s start in Toronto has not gone as planned. He has one of the better fastballs among lefties but hasn’t used it enough and has been hit hard as a result. Kikuchi has also battled his command, recording as many walks (13) as strikeouts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Joey Gallo OF (Questionable).
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Yankees' last four games when facing a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
A few controversial calls by umpires in the seventh inning aside, the Blue Jays wasted a magnificent Alek Manoah start due to the fact they continue to struggle to cash in with runners on base.
Outside of an Aaron Judge bomb in the sixth inning, Manoah shut down the Yankees for six innings, allowing one run on three hits while striking out seven. But after a non-call at the plate where it appeared Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tagged Marwin Gonzalez, the wheels fell off for the Jays in an eventual 9-1 loss.
But the bigger problem is the Jays' hitting. They left another 14 runners on base in that game and are now hitting an MLB-worst .168 with runners in scoring position. And now they’ll have to deal with Nestor Cortes, who has only allowed four runs over his first four starts.
The lefty has been terrific for the Yankees this season. He owns an expected ERA of 1.65 and is limiting opponents to a .182 expected batting average. Cortes also held the Jays scoreless over 4 1-3 innings back on April 12, allowing just three hits while striking out five before handing the ball to a stellar Yankees bullpen that shut down the rest of the way.
And if scoring runs won’t be hard enough, preventing them might be even tougher with Yusei Kikuchi on the hill.
This is not the way Kikuchi and the Jays envisioned his tenure in Toronto beginning. He has an xERA of 5.96 over his first four starts while opponents have an expected slugging % of .505. And as noted, he’s struggled with his command. That won’t play against a New York team that ranks fourth in batting average, second in OPS, and first in home runs.
Theoretically, the Jays' righty-heavy lineup should match up well against Cortes and is capable of jumping on him in this matchup, so there is some temptation to take Toronto as a home dog here. But when you consider that Cortes has been so good at messing with hitters’ timing, the Jays' struggles with runners in scoring position, and Kikuchi, we’ve got to lean towards the Yankees tonight.
Prediction: Yankees (-145 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Now, these two AL East rivals are expected to battle for the AL East crown all season long and, for the most part, their first six games have been ultra-competitive while the Under has gone 4-2 in those games. Heck, last night’s game was 1-1 heading into the seventh. That said, we are due for an offensive explosion from these two.
The Yankees, who lead the MLB in scoring at 4.9 runs per game, strung together some hits late in the game last night, and they should be able to keep that rolling against the struggling Kikuchi. They got to him for three runs on five hits and drew two walks back on April 12, and on top of that, they rank second in OPS when it comes to facing left-handed pitching.
On the other side, despite the Jays' issues with runners on, this team still ranks ninth in batting average and eighth in OPS. So, those hits will come sooner or later — this lineup to too talented for those numbers to continue.
Look for the Yankees to do the heavy lifting here, but the Jays should be able to contribute enough to send this one Over the total.
Prediction: Over 8 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
For the best bet, I considered many ways to fade Kikuchi. The Yankees to lead after five and Kikuchi Over 2.5 walks are two very good bets worth a sprinkle, but my favorite is DJ LeMahieu to go Over his total bases prop.
LeMahieu has quietly collected hits in 16 of his last 18 games, hitting .324 over that stretch, raising his overall average to .296. But he has also had plenty of success against Kikuchi as well. The Yankees’ utility man is 5-11 in his career with a double and three walks in his career versus the Jays’ lefty.
Bet on LeMahieu to keep swinging a hot stick and go Over his total bases tonight.
Pick: DJ LeMahieu Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
