The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians square off at Progressive Field on Wednesday afternoon for their three-game series finale.
The Yankees bounced back from a loss in the series opener Monday, routing the Guardians 11-2 on Tuesday evening.
The Guardians jumped out to a 2-0 lead after one frame, but it was all Yankees after that, as Gerrit Cole settled down rather nicely, and the offense overwhelmed the home side.
Can the Yankees win their fourth series in as many tries on the young season, or will the Guardians earn their first series win at home in 2023? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Guardians on Wednesday, April 12.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians predictions
The Yankees posted 11 runs in Tuesday’s game, and it was easily a season-best offensive total.
Apparently getting out to a 2-0 lead in this series is a bad thing. New York did it Monday, and ended up allowing three unanswered runs. Cleveland did it Tuesday, and ended up yielding 11 unanswered runs.
As a result, check out first inning Over 0.5 runs, as we’ve seen runs in the first inning in each of the first two games in this series, and it’s not terribly priced out of line. In fact, I’d hammer this line
The Yankees turn to RHP Clarke Schmidt for the start, while the Guardians counter with RHP Peyton Battenfield. No disrespect to either pitcher, but that’s not exactly a who’s who of starting pitchers for this matinee game. Look for plenty of runs.
In addition to the inexperience of the pitchers, we will have winds whipping from across from left to right field at 13-16 mph. If a left-handed batter is able to get the ball up into the gusts, it could be bad news early for Schmidt and Battenfield.
Schmidt has coughed up seven earned runs, 10 hits (including two homers) and four walks across just 6 2/3 IP in two starts to date, so he has been very giving.
Battenfield is making his major league debut after being recalled from Triple-A Columbus. He allowed three runs — two earned — across 5 IP in his first start with Columbus. He gets the nod with Aaron Civale dealing with an oblique injury.
Again, look for at least one run in the first inning in this series finale, and I’d go at it quite hard. Battenfield is especially vulnerable to allowing early runs against a high-powered Yankees lineup.
My best bet: First inning Over 0.5 runs (-136 at FanDuel)
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Yankees vs Guardians moneyline analysis
The Yankees haven’t been able to stack victories, as they’re just 2-5 in the past seven games following a victory. New York is also just 2-5 in the past seven tries against teams with a winning overall record.
While that’s all well and good, the Yankees are 58-21 in the past 79 games against AL Central teams — a winning percentage of .734. The Bronx Bombers are 9-3 in the past 12 Game 3s of a series, too.
On the flip side, the Guardians have cashed in seven of the past 10 games at home, while going 13-4 in the past 17 against winning teams. The Guardians are also 10-3 in the past 13 games after a loss, while cashing at a 7-3 clip in the past 10 games against AL East teams.
It’s actually hard to project a winner here. Schmidt has been a disaster in his first two appearances, and that won’t be put up with for much longer by the faithful of the Pinstripers. However, Battenfield making his major league debut makes the outlook rather murky.
It’s better to focus on the total in this game, and more importantly, the first-inning run total.
Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under analysis
Just to reiterate, we have a 13-16 mph wind blowing from the left field seats across to right field, which could help out left-handed batters significantly against the pair of unproven right-handed hurlers.
The Over is 6-2-1 in the past nine games overall for the Guardians, while cashing at a 10-4 clip in the past 14 games at Progressive Field dating back to last season.
The Yankees have seen plenty of Under results lately, going 5-2 in the past seven inside the AL Central, while going 7-2 in the past nine against teams with a winning overall record.
Still, while the Under trends look good, you can avoid information which might date back to the 2022 season, or even the 2021 campaign. Looking lately, the Over is 3-2 in the past five games for the Yankees, while going 6-2-1 in the past nine for the Guardians.
With two unproven pitchers on the bump, and a gusty wind helping balls become souvenirs in the cheap seats, I could see a double-digit run total in The Land.
Yankees vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 12, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Ohio |
Yankees vs Guardians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 9.45 ERA): The 27-year old Georgian allowed two homers in just 3 1/3 innings in his first appearance against the Giants. He was able to at least keep the ball in the park in Baltimore, although he walked three of the 19 total batters he faced.
Payton Battenfield (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The 25-year-old Oklahoman makes his major league debut, slotting in for the injured Aaron Civale (oblique). He allowed three runs — two earned — across five innings in his first appearance this season for Triple-A Columbus.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Yankees are 58-21 in their last 79 vs. the AL Central. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians
