Yankees vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Yanks Take It To Walker in Battle of New York

The New York Mets and New York Yankees will open up a brief two-game set at Citi Field tonight with the home side looking to maintain its division lead.

This should be an interesting pitching duel with the Yanks sending Jordan Montgomery to the mound to face off against Taijuan Walker. On paper, this looks like a potential winning slot for Walker, but that may not be the case.

Find out why in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mets. 

Yankees vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened up as slight underdogs, but the steam has moved them to a slight favorite. The total opened at 8.0 and is moving slightly to the Under. With winds blowing out to center, Citi Field is playing better for home runs today, per Ballpark pal.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-115)
• Prediction: F5 Over 4.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Walker Under 4.5 Ks (+106)

Picks made on 7/26/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, July 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS

Yankees vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (3-2, 3.24 ERA): Montgomery will have a sizeable advantage vs. the Mets who hit left-handed pitching at a much worse rate than right-handers — 102 wRC+ (20th) vs. LHP and 112 wRC+ (6th) vs. RHP. Over his last seven games, he has a 4.10 ERA but has seen plenty of competitive teams including Houston, Boston (x2), Tampa and Toronto. He recorded 20 outs in his last outing against a solid Houston lineup but was saddled with his 14th no decision in 19 starts.

Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.55 ERA): Walker has put together an impressive free-agent season and owns a 1.80 ERA over his last seven games, but that set of opponents includes just one club above .500. He’s also allowed just one earned run over his last 21 innings at home but again, those came against the Cubs, Reds, Marlins, and Angels. He’s been a solid arm in an injured rotation but doesn’t miss many bats (bottom third in whiff percentage) and has a barrel rate and Hard Hit percentage at or below the league average. He’s also dealing with a knee and shoulder injury.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets

Yankees vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Both division-leading teams enter the two-game set with identical 16-14 straight up marks over their last 30 games, but the Yankees have played a much more difficult schedule. Twenty-two of those games came against teams competing for a wild card spot along with seven vs. the Houston Astros. 

The Mets, on the other hand, have played just 10 games vs. .500 teams and saw the Miami Marlins 10 times over that stretch — going 6-4 against them. The Yanks might not be stacking wins like they were earlier in the season, but the AL East is the toughest division in baseball right now and the Bombers’ 16-14 SU stretch is much more impressive than the Mets’.

I also believe the Yankees have the advantage on the mound in lefty Jordan Montgomery, who faces a Mets’ offense that is a below-average team against left-handed pitching. They are slashing .239/.318/.371 vs. southpaws and .258/.326/.406 against righties. 

The real value in betting the Yanks is the perceived current worth of starter Taijuan Walker. First, and maybe most importantly, is the health of the right-hander. He is currently dealing with a shoulder and knee injury — and although he is healthy enough to draw the start — this is the second time we're hearing about a shoulder injury after he missed some time in April.

Any issues regarding health would likely mean a quick hook, as Walker is a free agent after this year and his health in the rotation is very important for the Mets’ postseason push. However, Walker himself believes there's nothing to worry about.

Taijuan Walker said he’ll start Tuesday against the Yankees.

He got his right shoulder and right knee checked out last weekend, noting both are fine and it was “just a check up.”

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) July 22, 2022

Even if his ailments don’t slow him down, he has some underlying numbers that are concerning. His low ERA has a lot to do with the opponents that he’s faced. He’s seen just three teams over his 16 starts that currently have a .500 record and has a BABIP that sits as one of the lowest amongst MLB starters. His expected metrics are also a full run more than his actual numbers.

The market has moved in favor of the Yankees and I certainly agree with them being the favorites here.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-115 at bet365) 

Over/Under analysis

Taijuan Walker is currently 11-4 to the Under on the season, and for a guy that gets a lot of balls in play and has a league-average defense behind him, per FanGraph’s DEF rankings, it’s a tough rate to maintain. Citi Field is also playing long today with temperatures in the high 80s and double-digit winds blowing out to center field.

Following Walker’s last start where he was dealing with shoulder and knee issues, he recorded just seven whiffs of 95 pitches (tied for a 10-game low) and recorded more flyball outs than groundball outs for the first time in seven starts. If Walker isn’t at his best, the league’s No. 1 offense can certainly take advantage.

Since both teams were off yesterday and the bullpens are rested, I’d pivot to a first five Over 4.5 (+100). We all know that the Yankees’ bullpen is still one of the best in baseball and has enough strong middle arms to bridge the middle innings if Montgomery doesn't record 18 outs. The Mets’ relievers aren’t nearly in the same tier but Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino throw up zeroes.

The Yanks’ best chance to score is early against Walker and in the middle innings if they can shred the starter early.   

Prediction: first five innings Over 4.5 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet

We aren’t high on Taijuan Walker tonight vs. a Bombers team that has the highest ISO vs. RHP in the American League. Walker left a start earlier in April with shoulder irritation and had his shoulder and knee checked out over the All-Star break. 

Compound that with numbers that he's padded against some terrible hitting teams of late and a BABIP that sits well below where it should be, some tougher days could be on the horizon for the soon-to-be free agent.

The hitting conditions at Citi Field also favor the hitters tonight and especially the long ball that's playing +8% higher than neutral conditions. No team in baseball has hit more home runs vs. RHP than the Yankees this season.

Walker also has a large reverse split today with all the left-handed bats of the Yankees. His total out market has fallen from 17.5 to 16.5 but there is still some value on his strikeout prop — especially with a guy who with a low whiff rate. 

Walker has struck out bad teams but he is 0-8 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Phillies (x4), Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Cardinals.   

Taijuan Walker prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106)

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