The New York Yankees’ hot run hit a bit of a snag on Tuesday as they failed to produce offensively in a 4-2 loss to the Washington Nationals, but they’ll have an opportunity to lock up yet another series victory on Wednesday with Carlos Rodon headed to the hill opposite MacKenzie Gore.
New York’s struggles against left-handers have been well-documented this season, so don’t expect much out of a lineup that was cooled by another southpaw just 24 hours ago. The Nationals offense remains subpar vs. any handedness, too.
My Yankees vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks for August 28 expect few runs to come across, with Aaron Judge figuring to struggle a bit as well.
Yankees vs Nationals prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Yankees still lead baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but they’ve been considerably worse in the reverse split with a measly 106 wRC+ to rank 13th in baseball. They’ve struck out more in this split, despite masking those issues with more walks, but the big differentiator would have to be the 40-point gap in Isolated Power.
This should set up nicely for MacKenzie Gore, who has struggled to limit hits all season long but does have a .402 Expected Slugging, which beats the league average by just a few points. He’s displayed good strikeout potential with a 24.4% punchout rate in two and a half seasons at this level, and with an eye towards fly balls should quiet New York the same way Patrick Corbin did a year ago.
New York, similar to its standing against right-handers, does still sit inside the league’s Top 3 against ground-ball pitchers by OPS, but is well outside the Top 10 against fly-ball arms.
The same can be said here for the Washington Nationals, however, a team that ranks 27th in wRC+ vs. lefties as opposed to 17th the other way around. Many of their reliable bats hit from the left side, and now without Lane Thomas they’re lacking that true lefty masher to help keep this team afloat. They’ve also lost Alex Call, a bright spot in the second half, to a season-ending foot injury.
Washington isn’t striking out a whole lot this year, and as is the case for many contact-oriented groups, it has favored ground-ball pitchers. Carlos Rodon stands as an extreme fly-baller who has pounded the strike zone, and I think he’ll pitch to plenty of outs through the air against a team that is depleted and already at a platoon disadvantage.
Back both pitchers to keep this one relatively quiet.
Aaron Judge player prop
My best bet
Aaron Judge Under 2.5 H+R+RBI (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
While the Yankees have struggled against left-handers, the same can’t be said for Aaron Judge. The behemoth is hitting a wonderous .316 in the split with a massive .456 Isolated Power, walking in 26.6% of these plate appearances around an elevated strikeout rate.
Gore has had a decent showing in the strikeout department, but the walks are something that I’ll harp on here considering he’s been poor in that category and Judge has drawn walks like nobody’s business. I anticipate Judge walking at least once here, which might make it tough for him to rack up hits, and the Yankees’ production has been so poor against lefties that I’m not sure he’ll come around to score in this one or be presented with RBI opportunities. We’re priced out of several markets, so this is the one we’ll have to go with.
Yankees vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
MacKenzie Gore 5+ strikeouts
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 walks
Left-handed starters have had some fun pitching to the Yankees this year. We’ve watched two straight southpaws rack up five or more strikeouts to begin this series, and I think we’re headed for a third with Gore toeing the slab.
Yes, the strikeout rate is not quite where we’d want it to be heading into this one, but Gore has still sat down six hitters in two of his last four starts and will deal to a Yankees team experiencing an increase of a full percentage point in strikeout rate to lefties. There are plenty of culprits up and down this lineup, and as I expect him to stick around for plenty of innings, Gore should get home with five Ks.
I also, unsurprisingly, like Judge to walk here given what we covered above. A 26.6% walk rate against lefties over almost a full-season sample is comical, and Gore has walked over 9% of the batters he’s faced this year with an objectionable 10 walks in 20 2/3 innings this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Nationals odds
Yankees vs Nationals live odds
Yankees vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -195 | Washington +155
- Run line: New York -1.5 (-130) | Washington +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Yankees vs Nationals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Nationals began as +155 underdogs in this game, but the line has drifted out to +170 on the home underdogs.
- New York has accounted for a whopping 88% of the bets and 86% of the moneyline handle at DraftKings.
- The total remains at the opening number of 9, and after some early action on the Under is trending back up towards 9.5.
- While just 46% of the tickets are on the Over here, 90% of the money is headed that way.
Yankees vs Nationals trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.65 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Nationals.
Yankees vs Nationals game info
| Location: | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (14-8, 4.16 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | MacKenzie Gore (7-11, 4.51 ERA) |
Yankees vs Nationals latest injuries
Yankees vs Nationals weather
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