The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles face off in the second game of a three-game set at Camden Yards on Saturday night.
The Orioles edged the Yankees in extra innings last night but oddsmakers don't see them winning again with MLB betting lines opening with New York as a -210 road favorite for tonight's contest.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Orioles on April 16, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Yankees vs Orioles odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as a -210 favorite for this contest with the Over/Under at 9. Somewhat surprisingly the early money has come in on the Orioles, shortening this line to Yankees -185 as of 1 p.m. ET.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Orioles predictions
- Prediction: Yankees runline -1.5 (-115)
- Prediction: Under 9 (-105)
- Best bet: Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
Picks made on 4/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Orioles game info
• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, YES
Yankees vs Orioles betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (0-1, 3.60 ERA): Taillon allowed five hits and two runs while striking out six in five innings of work against the Blue Jays in his season debut on Monday. He had an up-and-down campaign with the Yankees last year, going 8-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 29 starts.
Tyler Wells (0-0, 21.60 ERA): The towering right-hander was shelled for four runs before getting the hook in the second inning of Sunday's loss to the Rays. Wells was solid as a rookie last year, pitching to a 4.11 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP but all of his 57 innings came out of the bullpen.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Zack Britton RP (Out), Ben Rortvedt C (Out).
Orioles: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 18-6-2 in the Orioles' last 26 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
Yankees vs Orioles picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Yankees lost 2-1 in extra innings last night to drop to 4-4 on the year. It was another poor offensive performance from the Yankees, who now rank 27th in the majors in scoring with 3.13 runs per game.
However, it's really just a matter of time before New York's big bats break out and the analytics suggest that should happen pretty soon. The Yankees are actually second in the majors in Hard Hit percentage and expected slugging percentage (.505), and they could feast on a Baltimore pitching staff that is among the worst in the majors.
Tyler Wells will make his second start of the season (and his career) for Baltimore after getting shredded by the Rays on Sunday. Wells was a pleasant surprise as a rookie reliever last year but the jury is still out on him as a starter, and moving him into the rotation weakens an already poor bullpen.
Yankees starter Jameson Taillon isn't a stud but he's a more experienced and reliable option than Wells, and the Yankees bullpen is one of the best in the business.
Meanwhile, Baltimore's bats have been even worse than New York's as the Orioles have a meager slugging percentage of just .283, plating an average of just 2.0 runs per game so far.
With the Yankees going 24-8 in their last 32 trips to Camden Yards, we'll take them on the run line here.
Prediction: Yankees RL -1.5 (-115 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
With the total set at 9 and both teams struggling at the dish, the Under seems like the play here. Sure, we think the Yankees will break out soon, but we have less faith in a Baltimore lineup that is brutal both in terms of actual production and expected production.
The Orioles have some good young hitters in Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullens, but the rest of their lineup is riddled with weak hitters.
The trends are also pointing toward this not being a high-scoring contest with the Under having gone 6-0-1 in Baltimore's last seven games at home and 6-1 in the Yankees' last seven overall.
Prediction: Under 9 (-105 at Sports Interaction)
Best bet
Jameson Taillon might not be an All-Star but the righty has been doing a good job of making opposing batters whiff. Taillon averaged a career-high 8.7 strikeouts per 9 innings last season and had an impressive 23.2 strikeout percentage.
That included a pair of starts against the Orioles where he fanned a total of 17 batters across 11 innings. The Orioles were 23rd in the league in strikeout percentage last season (24.3%) and they've been even worse this season, ranking 29th with a 28.6% rate.
With Taillon striking out six in five innings against Toronto's loaded lineup in his first start of the year, we're taking the Over 4.5 strikeouts versus a much weaker Orioles squad tonight.
Pick: Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at BetMGM)
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