Editor's note: this preview was written prior to the news that Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela would not be in the Yankees lineup today (rest).
The New York Yankees will look to cap off a 10-game road trip with a victory Thursday afternoon when they face the Texas Rangers in an afternoon MLB betting matinee.
A win would also give the Yankees three wins in the four-game set, and baseball odds favor New York to get the job done against a free-falling Rangers squad.
Here are our best MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rangers on Thursday, May 20, with first pitch set for 2:05 p.m. ET.
Yankees vs Rangers game info
• Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
• Date: Thursday, May 20, 2021
• Time: 2:05 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, BS-SW
Yankees vs Rangers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Yankees -131/Rangers +121, with early action on the home side shifting the line to NY -119/Texas +110. The total was bet down from 8.5 to 8, with more juice on the Over. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Rangers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (3-2, 3.62 ERA): German began his 2021 campaign with two rough starts, giving up seven earned runs in seven combined innings, was sent down to New York's alternate site, and has looked rejuvenated ever since coming back. The 28-year-old righty has gone at least six innings in and allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts since rejoining the club, and his signature curveball looks as good as ever — opponents are hitting just .119 off his breaker this season.
Dane Dunning (2-3, 4.34 ERA): It's been a bit of a shaky start to the season for Dunning, although he's actually been pitching better than his numbers suggest. The 26-year-old righty has a 2.62 FIP, but his ERA and WHIP (1.42) are so high because he's had some bad luck: he has a .358 BAbip right now (well above the league average) and only gives up flyballs on 18.5 percent of contact. The problem is that opponents are hitting .308 off his primary pitch — a sinker — and he has an overall hard-hit percentage of 46.3 percent.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Clint Frazier OF (Questionable), Giancarlo Stanton OF (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out), Zack Britton.
Rangers: Josh Jung 3B (Out), Brock Holt UTIL (Out), Ronald Guzman 1B (Out), Jose Leclerc RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Rangers are 1-8 in their last nine games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rangers.
Moneyline pick
A win in today's matchup would give the Yankees three wins out of this four-game set — and their sixth straight series win. New York has not actually lost a series since April 16-18 against Tampa Bay, but you wouldn't be able to guess that by looking at how sad its offense has been this season.
The Bronx Bombers are eighth in the majors in home runs but score the ninth-fewest runs per game in the league. They are 23rd in team batting average (.227) and even against a Texas squad that has surrendered at least four runs in seven of its last nine games going into this series, New York has mustered just two runs in two of the first three games.
The Yankees had a whopping four hits in a 2-0 victory yesterday but got the win behind Corey Kluber throwing the sixth 9-inning no-hitter (already) of this MLB season. It's continuing the trend of what has carried the Yanks to a 24-19 record: the pitching staff. New York is sixth in the majors with a 3.35 ERA and German, who takes the mound today, has been rolling since returning from New York's alternate site.
Texas, on the other hand, has lost eight of its last nine games overall and is scoring just 2.88 runs per game over that stretch. Their pitching has also been shaky, with only Kyle Gibson reaching the seventh inning during this span and the bullpen ranking near the bottom of the league in K/9 and BAbip on the season.
Neither team is really hitting, but the Yankees have the decided pitching edge — in both the bullpen (which is well-rested) and the starters taking the mound today. That's enough for us to back the Pinstripes to come away with a win this afternoon.
PREDICTION: Yankees (-119)
Over/Under pick
Contrary to their nickname, the Bronx Bombers have been a better Under play this season, going 18-24-1 O/U so far in 2021.
A big factor for that is outside of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (currently on the IL), the Yankees are not hitting the ball with much authority. New York is 25th in the league in BAbip (.269), 24th in hard-hit percentage (30%), 29th in line-drive percentage (19.1%), has the seventh-highest ground-ball percentage (45.6%), and leads the Majors in double plays.
Why is that important? Well, they are facing Dunning, a sinkerballer that doesn't give up fly balls (or home runs) but gives up a lot of hard contact on the ground — so New York isn't really equipped to exploit Dunning's weaknesses.
Offensively, Texas isn't much better. The Rangers are second in the Bigs by hitting ground balls 47.8 percent of the time and are one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors against curveballs (24th in weighted runs against curveballs, per FanGraphs), so we're not expecting the curveball-heavy German to get roughed up either.
The total finished below eight runs in two of the first three games this series, so even though today's number has dropped from 8.5 to 8.0, we're still betting that these struggling offenses fail to reach that threshold.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-115)
Yankees vs Rangers betting card
- Yankees ML (-119)
- Under 8 (-115)
Picks made on 5/20/2021 at 9:34 a.m. ET
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