The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will meet for a three-game series with both sides looking to rebound after losses to divisional foes.
Despite yesterday's thrilling 10-9 loss to Toronto, the Yankees remain red hot and have won 16 of their last 18.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's start could probably safely be categorized as disappointing. The Rays have won just three of their last 10, but are squarely in the hunt in the Wild Card race.
Read our MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees to see which side we'll be backing tonight.
Yankees vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Odds for this game were released this morning. The Yankees became -130 favorites, with the Rays returning around +115. The odds have mostly stayed there across the board.
The total opened up at 6.5 and has stayed there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 6/20/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Monday, June 20, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, YES
Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (6-1, 3.33 ERA): It's been a bit of a quiet subplot to the Yankees season, but Cole hasn't always been guaranteed to throw gems this season. The blowup two starts ago against the Twins ballooned his ERA. He gave up eight earned runs in that game before being pulled in the second inning. A couple of starts before that, he had had a similar performance against Baltimore when he gave up five earned runs but somehow stayed around for seven innings. Overall, the numbers are still solid, but they do come with a warning that he may not be the guaranteed clean start he once was. Much like he has throughout his career, Cole remains a fastball, slider-heavy pitcher.
Shane McClanahan (7-3, 1.84 ERA): McClanahan has been pretty remarkable. The lefty's expected ERA sets in the Top 8% among qualified pitchers in baseball. He's seen this Yankee team twice and combined for 13 innings of work, surrendering just two earned runs. His last start came against them when he went six innings and gave up one earned run on three hits. There's not much to nitpick at with McClanahan, but it would be his barrel rate if you wanted to find something. Batters don't usually hit him hard, but they do a decent job finding the barrel. He has given up a home run in three of the last four starts, and that's mainly why. McClanahan throws a good mix of pitches, including a fastball, curveball, and changeup.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out).
Rays: Mike Zunino C (Out), Wander Franco 2B (Out), Brandon Lowe 2B (Out), Drew Rasmussen RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Just yesterday, I wrote about the Yankees' issues with left-handed pitching. That matchup didn't go exactly as planned, but the overall premise held. Today they will be faced with another lefty, but a much better one. Because of that, I'll be backing the Rays.
Objectively speaking, McClanahan has had a better season than Cole and, up to this point, looks to be a better pitcher. However, if the Yankees had no issues against left-handed pitching, I'd still see a pitching edge — that aspect makes it stronger.
The barrel issues concern me a bit, but not enough to shy away, that's how good McClanahan has been. There's not a ton to say here because McClanahan doesn't have many weak spots.
New York has been swinging and missing a little more than usual over the last three games. The Yankees averaged just over nine strikeouts during that span, up from eight on the season. McClanahan can use that aggressive swing rate to his advantage and owns one of the best K rates in baseball.
On the other side of the mound, taking too much umbrage with what Cole has done this season isn't easy, but the blowups have to be noted. The Rays don't possess the power-hitters that can give issues to Cole as the Twins or even Orioles do, but to put it plainly, he hasn't pitched to McClanahan's quality this season. That makes this an easy decision.
I'll look to ignore the bullpens here and focus on what I see as a decent pitching edge. My personal projections give the Rays around a 63% chance to be in the lead or tied after five innings.
Although it's a juicy number, I'm still seeing a decent edge and will back the Rays' first-five spread. In doing so, I'll be trusting the pitcher who has shown the most consistent dominance rather than the one who has a few blowup first innings to his name.
Prediction: Rays first five innings +0.5 (-142 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
It's a bit jarring to look at a total of less than 7 in modern baseball, but that's what we have today. It's also a number that I'll be backing the Under on.
Even if Cole has a bit of a rough start, the Rays won't do too much damage to him. His struggles have all come against teams with a barrel rate that ranks in the Top 10 of baseball.
That isn't Tampa and it's not even close. The Rays have the second-lowest barrel rate among all teams in baseball. It's one area you start to feel the absence of Franco and Lowe.
I've spoken a lot about McClanahan and what I think about him on the mound today. The Yankees, even with one of the best offenses in baseball, do have their issues against left-handed pitching. Before yesterday, totals had gone Under in five of their last six starts against left-handed pitching.
There's also the anecdotal part where, at some point, the Yankees hitting has to have a game or two where they cool off a bit. I mentioned it yesterday, but their OPS in June would be the best OPS of any team in modern baseball. That's not sustainable.
Don't let this low total scare you here. We'll be grabbing it, and our projections see it hitting around 60% of the time.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Both teams have a somewhat rested bullpen, so even in the unlikely nature that a starter gets pulled early, they'll be there to hold. Because of that, I'm rolling with the Under as my best bet.
A significant portion of peripherals suggests the Yankees' offense should cool off. In addition, there's just a ton of pop in the Rays' bats right now, and that's been Cole's most significant issue.
Play the Under 6.5 as your best bet for this game, but only at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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