The New York Yankees will look to repair their AL East lead when they meet the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Saturday evening.
The Yankees looked listless in a 9-0 defeat to the Rays on Friday night, which saw their once-gigantic division lead slashed to five games.
Can the Bombers bounce back? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Rays on Saturday, September 3.
Yankees vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Rays opened as consensus -130 favorites once Corey Kluber was announced as the starter on Friday night, and that line has moved only about five cents in either direction as of Saturday morning. Most sites have listed and stuck with a total of 7.5 runs, though 8.0 can be found at DraftKings as of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 8/3/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun
Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.89 ERA): Schmidt has done most of his work in relief this year, but he’s being pressed for a second straight start by manager Aaron Boone on Saturday night. Schmidt coughed up four earned runs over 4 1-3 innings to the subpar A’s offense in a losing effort on Sunday. It’s a small sample size of 20 innings, but Schmidt’s 4.05 ERA on the road is a red flag.
Corey Kluber (9-7, 4.21 ERA): If you omit the seven runs allowed over 5 2-3 innings in his sixth start of the year against the Orioles on Aug. 12, Corey Kluber pitched to a 3.28 ERA last month. The former Yankee has taken on his old teammates three times in 2022 and recorded a quality start in each instance.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 3-13 in their last 16 road games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Perhaps the free-falling Yankees will get it in gear soon, but this doesn’t look like the right spot to take them as underdogs.
Clarke Schmidt — replacing the injured Nestor Cortes in the rotation — has authored a 4.05 ERA and .273 opponent batting average on the road this year. Most of his work has been in relief, and his most recent start against the A’s was not encouraging, as he surrendered four earned runs on eight hits and a walk in just 4 1-3 innings.
Schmidt should not be expected to pitch deep into this one, which means the flagging Bombers bullpen will be tasked with extra work. This unit has produced a 3.89 ERA over the last two weeks, ranking just 21st in the majors in that span.
The Rays — who have won 15 of their last 19 and scored 30 runs during their current four-game winning streak — have some red-hot hitters in their lineup in Randy Arozarena (1.217 OPS) and Yandy Diaz (1.101 OPS). Either or both is capable of starting a rally in this tilt.
Corey Kluber counters on the mound for Tampa, looking to live up to his 1.50 ERA over 18 innings of work against New York this year. Considering how the Yankee lineup has plated more than three runs in just one of its last seven contests, that seems like a fairly easy task.
Kluber is backed by a Rays bullpen that’s seventh by ERA (2.79) over the last two weeks.
This game may not turn into another 9-0 rout like Friday’s affair, but the result should remain the same — another convincing Rays triumph.
Prediction: Rays moneyline (-126 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Under bettors should pounce on any remaining line of 8.0 in this one, but should also be willing to settle for 7.5 in what figures to be a low-scoring contest.
Schmidt owns a 1.59 ERA in four career outings against Tampa, so perhaps he can keep this lineup in check the first time around.
The New York bullpen has been tested for depth lately, but Clay Holmes has returned from a brief IL stint to tally two scoreless appearances. It remains to be seen if he’ll slide back into the closer’s role, but this is a step in the right direction.
Also trending upward is Jonathan Loaisiga, who has lowered his ERA from 8.31 to 5.29 in the span of six weeks, so he could be called upon in the clutch.
The Rays’ offense tends to come-and-go, as the Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games when their opponent allows five or more runs in their previous contest.
Meanwhile, Tampa’s pitching staff has limited Aaron Judge & Co. to 42 runs over 14 meetings in 2022 — an average of only three runs per tilt. Once the stalwart Kluber exits, there’s no shortage of reliable relief arms who could step forward in this one. Jason Adam and Colin Poche — who share the team lead in saves with seven apiece — figure to be in manager Kevin Cash’s plans.
Trend bettors should keep riding the Under with the Yankees, who have failed to exceed the total in five of their last six games after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous contest. The Bombers are also 9-3-1 to the Under in their last 13 road games.
Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
As tempting as it may be to back the Rays on the runline, the safe play is to stick with a moneyline wager.
Runs figure to be precious on Saturday. That goes double for New York, who could be without both Anthony Rizzo (back) and Andrew Benintendi (hand). The averages for most of the Bombers’ bats over the last week are microscopic, including the normally-reliable DJ LeMahieu (.050).
The trends also point toward a play on the Rays, who are 8-1 in their last nine games following a win, and 7-1 in their last eight games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
The negative betting trends are piling up for the Yankees, who are 8-20 in their last 28 games against teams with winning records, and 7-19 in their last 26 road games.
Pick: Rays moneyline (-126 at FanDuel)
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