The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Sunday afternoon.
The Rays will be going for the sweep after limiting the Yankees to one run over the first two contests. Can Tampa’s pitching staff hold strong?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Rays on Sunday, September 4.
Yankees vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees were initially consensus underdogs of +141 for this contest, but that was when Corey Kluber was lined up to pitch (he went Saturday instead). Following the Rays announcing Shawn Armstrong would start this affair, New York was installed as a -125 favorite at the majority of sportsbooks. The line has yet to see much movement.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 9/4/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, FL
• Date: Sunday, September 3, 2022
• First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun
Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (4-11, 3.94 ERA): Frankie Montas hasn’t come close to matching the expectations the Yankees had for him when they acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline. After producing a 3.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with the A’s, Montas has authored a 7.01 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP with the Bombers. New York is hoping he can pitch to the 0.68 ERA he put up against the Rays in two earlier starts against them in 2022.
Shawn Armstrong (2-1, 4.72 ERA): Shawn Armstrong makes only his second start of the year in this spot after being used primarily in relief. Armstrong worked three shutout innings on Tuesday, facing one batter above the minimum. The Yankees should be prepared for a “bullpen game” from the Rays.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 3-14 in their last 17 road games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Rays should secure the series sweep against the Yankees on Sunday afternoon despite having to resort to a “bullpen game.”
Frankie Montas will toe the rubber for New York, looking to shake off his second loss with his new club. He served up three homers to the Angels over six innings when last seen on Monday, including Shohei Ohtani’s go-ahead two-run dinger in the fifth inning.
Montas allowed only one earned run over 13 1-3 innings of work against the Rays earlier this year, but the months of April and May must feel like a distant memory for him as he’s struggling to settle in his new environs.
Tampa’s hot-hitting lineup has propelled their team to a 15-4 record over its last 19 games. Usual suspects Yandy Diaz (1.197 OPS) and Randy Arozarena (1.091 OPS) have been carrying the freight for the Rays over the last week, along with the surprising Jose Siri. The former Astro has multiple hits in four of his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Rays manager Kevin Cash will be looking for a group effort from his pitching staff in this one, starting with Shawn Armstrong.
The North Carolina native acquitted himself well in his first start of 2022, tossing three shutout innings on 48 pitches. Armstrong seemingly has little to fear against a Yankee lineup that’s plated more than three runs in only one of its last eight tilts. He’s backed by a Tampa relief corps that’s ninth in the majors by ERA (3.06) over the last two weeks.
There are plenty of negative betting trends to highlight for the free-falling Bombers, who are 8-21 in their last 29 games against teams with winning records, and 7-20 in their last 27 road games. Aaron Judge may have crushed his 52nd homer of the season on Saturday, but he can’t win games alone.
Prediction: Rays moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Yankees’ stagnant offense should once again help Under bettors prevail on Sunday afternoon.
Judge aside, the New York lineup has been dreadful during their current 1-6 slide. Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Josh Donaldson are a combined 6-for-63 (.095) over their last six starts with no homers and only one RBI.
To make matters worse for this unit, Anthony Rizzo is still being held out with a back injury, and Andrew Benintendi hit the 10-day IL on Saturday following an inconclusive MRI on his right wrist.
Judge & Co. figure to be on their back foot all game long against a rotating cast of relievers for the Rays. Jason Adam could be off-limits after working two straight nights, but the effective Colin Poche (2.85 ERA) has only worked 1-3 of an inning in this series. Matt Wisler (2.36 ERA) – called up following the expansion of rosters in September – could be asked for a bulk appearance.
This unit has been a source of strength for Tampa all year long, and should not flounder in this spot.
The Yankees’ bullpen did yeoman’s work on Saturday, pitching 3 2-3 scoreless innings behind Clarke Schmidt. Manager Aaron Boone didn’t even need to call on Clay Holmes (2.29 ERA), who has returned from a brief IL stint to tally two scoreless appearances.
As long as Montas keeps his composure, New York should prevent this game from getting out of hand.
Prediction: Under 7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The Rays have had the Yankees’ number throughout 2022 and should keep the trend going in Sunday’s series finale.
Tampa has surrendered only 43 runs to the Bombers over 15 head-to-head matchups this year, good for an average of 2.87 runs per game. They’ve done an outstanding job keeping Judge in check – despite homering on Saturday, the AL MVP frontrunner is batting only .220 against the Rays this season.
Judge’s teammates have been letting him down of late, as seven of his last 10 home runs have been solo shots. He can’t break a game open by himself, so take the Under on the Yankees’ team total.
Pick: Yankees team total Under 3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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