The nightmare month for the New York Yankees continues tonight in the Sunshine State after they took another loss last night to open this divisional series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa dropped four first-inning runs, which was enough to win the game, as the Yankees could only muster three. And thanks to a solid pitching matchup, my Yankees vs. Rays predictions don't expect a sudden influx of offense.
Read on for my free MLB picks on Wednesday, July 10th.
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
A plus-money price on the Under today was both unexpected and welcomed. I projected this number a full half-run shorter with two solid pitchers with favorable matchups taking the mound. I have to take what I see as a considerable edge on the total this evening and grab the Under 8 in this spot.
Let's start with New York Yankees righty Marcus Stroman.
Stroman has had an up-and-down debut season in The Bronx. However, the one thing that Stroman has been consistently elite at this season is producing ground balls. He has a ground-ball rate that places him in the Top 8% of baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays own the ninth-highest rate in baseball and pair that with the 28th-ranked hard-hit rate against righties. If you get Stroman, it will be hard-hit balls, and they have yet to produce them this season.
On the other side, we have Zach Eflin, who has had quite a similar season to Stroman. This, however, is more of a fade of the Yankees offense.
The Yankees have scored more than three runs just once over their last five and have the 11th-worst BABIP in the league over the previous three games. It's worth mentioning that Tampa has been worse in that stretch, which furthers our cause.
I'm willing to bet on their bats continuing to struggle against a pitcher who has done two key things well this season. They limit barrel rate and hard-hit balls
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Ben Rice Over 0.5 hits
Ben Rice has hit in five of his last seven and eight of his last 10 and is batting nearly .270 since debuting in the major leagues. Somehow, his price remains regularly too long in the market.
The thing I like most about this matchup against Eflin is the pitching arsenal that Rice'll see. Eflin is a heavy breaking ball pitcher, an area where Rice has had a high amount of success.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Tampa Bay -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- We've seen some heavy action on the Rays. The Yankees opened as favorites and are now plus money on the moneyline at all books.
- The Yankees are 3-7 over their last 10 games, causing bettors to lose over four units.
- Tampa has a .500 record in its last 10 games and just a slight loss for bettors.
- There are no real edges trend-wise when these two teams have gone head-to-head. They share a 5-5 record with a 6-4 record to the Over.
Yankees vs Rays trend
The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video, Bally Sports Sun |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (7-4, 3.58 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (5-5, 4.19 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
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