Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Eovaldi's Struggles Continue at Fenway

Smell that in the air? That, my friends, is the lovely smell of a rivalry. The New York Yankees (71-41) head to Boston to begin a three-game series against the Red Sox (54-58) in Fenway.

After being the best team in baseball to begin the season, the Yankees have hit a cold patch — winning just two of their last 10 games. Their +204 run differential remains the best in the American League by a significant margin.

Will the pinstripes get back on track during a series with their rivals?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Friday, August 12.

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Boston opened as a +115 underdog at home, but the line has come in at most spots. As of the time of this writing, the Red Sox resides between +104 and +110, depending on the book. The total has been set at 9.5 across the board.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-118)
• Prediction: Over 9.5 (-106)
• Best bet: Yankees ML (-118)

Picks made on 8/12/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, SMA
• Date: Friday, August 12, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, NESN

Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Domingo German (1-2, 5.09 ERA): German is still looking to find his footing in 2022, posting a 5.09 ERA and 1.53 WHIP across only four starts. He’s yet to last more than five innings in any of those starts, and it hasn’t looked particularly encouraging. His last start was his best, hurling five innings of one-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals in a no-decision. German's 6.61 xERA and 5.78 FIP are definitely reasons for concern.

Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 4.23 ERA): Eovaldi’s managed to keep his ERA below 4.00 in three of the last four seasons, but he has some work to do if he hopes to address that in 2022. His 4.23 xERA is the same as his actual ERA, and his 4.45 FIP isn’t the greatest. He’s allowing hitters to make too much hard contact, as his 8.1% barrel rate is near the bottom of the league among qualified starters.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 12-5 in their last 17 meetings against the Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The early line movement is indicative that bettors aren’t trusting the Yankees in their recent form. After a questionable trade deadline headlined by the Jordan Montgomery ousting, the team’s recent play has done little to instill confidence.

They’ve gone just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and early action has dropped the line from -135 in their favor to -121 in most spots. Domingo German hasn’t looked trustworthy this season, but his numbers haven’t been that bad across his five-year career. German posted a 4.09 ERA last year across 22 starts.

Nathan Eovaldi is on the mound for Boston, and I find it hard to have much faith in him. His high FIP is concerning, and his barrel rate is a non-starter.

Allowing that much hard contact is a recipe for disaster against this Yankees lineup — slump or not. Think Boston has the advantage because the game is being played at Fenway? You might want to reconsider that — Eovaldi has posted a 6.81 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season.

The Yankees may be slumping, but the Red Sox haven’t been setting the world on fire, either. They’re 7-19 in their last 26 games overall and are 1-4 in their last five home games. The Yankees are 12-5 in the last 17 games between these two rivals, and I think there’s value in betting on that trend to continue on Friday night.

This is one of the best prices you’ll find all season on this team.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-118 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

You can’t trust either starting pitcher as far as you can throw them. That automatically piques interest in the Over, but let’s see if the high total of 9.5 is warranted.

These two teams have combined for fireworks, cashing the Over in each of the last seven meetings. How does that trend play out in Fenway? Not bad at all — the Over is 5-0 over the previous five meetings in Boston.

The Yankees may be in a slump, but this is still one of the best offenses in the league that is capable of putting up runs in bunches. Considering the Over is 11-5 in their last 16 games, I’m not counting out an offensive explosion.

Eovaldi’s 8.1% barrel rate is a recipe for disaster against a lineup this potent. The Over is 13-3 in the Yankees’ last 16 games against the AL East. Boston is also been trending to the Over, cashing in five of the Red Sox’s last six games.

The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games against the AL East, so it seems like a profitable angle to play the Overs in this division at this point. I'll be backing a high-scoring affair with two pitchers possessing a suspect profile on the mound and both teams trending to the Over.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Best bet

This line on the Yankees is too good to pass up, so that’s what I’m riding with as the best bet for Friday night. They may be in a funk, but that won’t last forever.

This team has a +204 run differential on the season, and that doesn’t happen by accident. The lineup is potent, and they have a favorable matchup against Eovaldi and his inflated ERA at Fenway this season.

There is serious value on this line tonight.

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-118 at WynnBet)

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