Another edition of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball gets underway tonight with the Boston Red Sox hosting the New York Yankees on July 28. The most historic rivalry in baseball is our featured game, so naturally, we are going to look at how to bet on it.
I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for tonight’s action. As always, make sure you keep an eye on the odds and available pricing due to the ever-changing nature of the player prop market, and be sure to check out our full Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions.
Yankees vs Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball props
- Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Ks (+130 at DraftKings)
- Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Ks (-160 at DraftKings)
- DJ LeMahieu Under 0.5 hits (+170 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 7-28 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Yankees vs Red Sox SNB props
Prop bet #1: Rodon Over 7.5 strikeouts
While 7.5 is a relatively high total for a strikeout prop, Carlos Rodon is more than capable of achieving it. He's a strikeout-first hurler, ranking in the 62nd percentile or higher in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
Subsequently, Rodon has recorded eight or more Ks in three of his past five starts. and averages 7.5 strikeouts per game across the past six meetings against the Boston Red Sox.
This trend makes sense, considering Boston ranks last in the league in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.
Carlos Rodon prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+130 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Houck Over 4.5 strikeouts
I'm also backing Boston’s Tanner Houck in the strikeout department. He does an exceptional job at making opposing hitters look foolish, ranking in the 82nd percentile in chase rate.
Unsurprisingly, he also ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate. While 7.5 is a big number for Rodon, 4.5 seems far too low for Houck, as it's a total he's surpassed in 11 of his past 15 starts.
He typically dominates the New York Yankees, posting a 2-1 record with a commanding 1.48 ERA over the past seven meetings. If this year’s All-Star does so once again and is in the game for six or more innings, Houck should have no issue recording at least five punchouts.
Tanner Houck prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-160 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: LeMahieu Under 0.5 hits
Speaking of Houck’s dominance against New York, DJ LeMahieu has been one of the biggest victims. He is 0-for-12 at the dish against Houck in his career, and that's how I'm fading the Yankees’ third baseman.
Furthermore, LeMahieu has struggled mightily this season and is in jeopardy of losing playing time. He's been benched more times than not recently, but if he is out of the lineup again on Sunday, this prop bet is simply voided.
However, I believe he will play and should be a good fade candidate if he does. LeMahieu possesses a mere .176 BA and an astoundingly poor .492 OPS this season.
Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as he also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
DJ LeMahieu prop: Under 0.5 hits (+170 at DraftKings)
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