The beat goes on for the New York Yankees. It continues its long trip without a day off and continues winning. New York continued its 8-2 pace in the last 10 games last night by starting this four-game set against the Kansas City Royals with a win.
Tonight, they'll look to repeat that with Aaron Judge returning fresh from a day off. The Royals, however, will have other ideas. Read more in my Yankees vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks below.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-142 at FanDuel)
My analysis
We may have missed the best number, but the bet in this matchup is still apparent. I love the New York Yankees in this spot and I'm making the moneyline my second two-unit play of the MLB season. I'd play it down to -155.
Brady Singer can't keep getting away with this. The Kansas City Royals righty has yet to have a bad game despite metrics that point in one direction, and that's worse than the actual numbers. Singer holds an expected ERA over 4.00 against his 2.76 actual ERA.
In addition, he has a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 40% of baseball, a barrel rate in the Bottom 30%, and an expected batting average in the Bottom 25%. Somehow, he's been able to avoid a terrible game. Even in a game where he gave up four earned runs, he went six innings. I expect that to change today against an offense well-suited to attack him.
Singer has maintained substantial numbers because of an elite groundball rate among baseball's best. What's the problem against a Yankees team that's healthy again with Juan Soto back in the lineup? They don't hit many ground balls, at least not lately.
They have the eighth-lowest ground ball rate in baseball over the last month, which is a good sign going into this matchup. It would be no coincidence that the team that happened to give Singer the most issues this season — the Blue Jays — ranks second in this same metric. The Yankees can combine that with some of baseball's best power and hard-hit balls. We've already seen that's a prominent issue for Singer.
Marcus Stroman for New York will be on the other side of the diamond. We need him to be solid, and he's done an excellent job of that. The previous outing against the Twins was terrible, but he had posted five straight starts where he allowed three or fewer earned runs before that. If we get that today, I love our chances to cash this bet and I expect that type of performance against what has been a pedestrian offense.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
It's getting chalky with this SGP, but we still see value. We're pairing Aaron Judge to go Over his total base prop with our best bet. It doesn't feel like you have to explain much about betting Judge these days other than looking at what he's done recently from a hitting perspective. However, I particularly like this matchup for two reasons: Judge has the lowest groundball rate among Yankees and has slugged .985 in his career against Singer.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+115) | Kansas City +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Kansas City +120
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have owned the head-to-head series between these two teams recently with a 7-3 advantage over the last 10 meetings.
- Yet again, New York has attracted money in the betting market. Since opening, this moneyline price has moved 10 cents toward the Yankees.
- New York has been profitable for bettors recently as the Yankees have gone 8-2 over the last 10 games, which has yielded bettors a profit of +4.5 units.
- The Royals are 4-6 over that span and lost just over 1.54 units for bettors.
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Yankees vs Royals trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 26 of their last 34 games (+22.75 units / 56% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
Yankees vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Kansas City |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (5-2, 3.04 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Brady Singer (4-2, 2.76 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
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