Usman Nurmagomedov defends his lightweight title against Benson Henderson in the main event of Bellator 292 this weekend from the SAP Center in San Jose, CA.
The family Nurmagomedov continues their reign of terror across multiple MMA outfits, and the legendary Henderson is next to feel their wrath.
MMA odds have Nurmagomedov as a seemingly insurmountable favorite at -2,100, with Henderson sitting as the +1,100 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Nurmagomedov vs. Henderson at Bellator 292 in San Jose.
Nurmagomedov vs Henderson odds
| Market | Usman Nurmagomedov | Benson Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -1,800 | +800 |
| To win by KO,TKO,DQ, or submission | -200 | +2,200 |
| To win by Points | +162 | +1,200 |
Odds courtesy of Betway on March 10, 2023
Nurmagomedov vs Henderson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nurmagomedov vs Henderson betting preview
Nurmagomedov is coming off a dominant decision over Patricky Pitbull at Bellator 288 and now has his eyes set on another Bellator staple in Henderson. Henderson, a former UFC and WEC champion, is still fighting at a respectable level — earning this shot at a title just eight months shy of his 40th birthday.
The champion is undefeated, he’s younger, and he’s been running through the Bellator lightweight division on his way to a title. He dominated Pitbull, who was also long in the tooth, and he’s moving on to an older fighter for his first defense. Nurmagomedov has predictably good wrestling, but he has more stoppages from strikes than submissions.
Being Khabib’s and Islam Makhachev’s cousin, it’s no surprise he’s a resourceful fighter. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and has great conditioning. Three of his last five fights in Bellator have been stopped inside the distance and he just seems a cut above the rest. Henderson is the most decorated opponent he’s ever faced, but it’s not hard to imagine he’s ready for the challenge.
Henderson has fought some great fighters at their best, and even now, he’s a capable veteran who can pull off some big wins. He’s won his last two fights, including a big one against the undefeated Islam Mamedov. That did come after a three-fight losing streak where he wasn’t looking too impressive.
One thing about Henderson is that he remains a tough night of work. He often goes the distance unless he’s in with a ridiculously strong striker, and he is still good on the ground, not having lost a fight by submission in nearly a decade. There isn’t much Nurmagomedov can show him that he hasn’t seen, but he’s an old man and needs to rely on that guile to pull off another upset.
The truth is that fighters like Henderson shouldn’t beat guys like Nurmagomedov. At least, not at this stage of their careers. Even so, Nurmagomedov didn’t pick Henderson — he’s fighting a battle-tested veteran who earned what’s likely to be his last shot at a title.
Covers MMA Betting Analysis
Nurmagomedov vs Henderson tale of the tape
| Usman Nurmagomedov | Benson Henderson | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Age | 39 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 16-0 (8 KO) | Record | 30-11 (5 KO) |
Nurmagomedov vs Henderson prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-2,100 at DraftKings)
There’s something about the Nurmagomedov DNA that makes them monsters. While Henderson is no joke and can still go with the best of Bellator's roster, he’s already slow to the trigger and would get wiped out on the ground. Giving Henderson the benefit of the doubt, the best he can hope for is that he’s moderately competitive.
We’ve seen Nurmagomedov’s run show multiple shades of his game. That multi-dimensional approach, the 15-year age gap, and the difference in miles tip the scales in his favor in a big way. Henderson is a legend and will be remembered as such, but on this night, he’ll prop up the resume of a new star.
Nurmagomedov continues his run, remaining undefeated with a win over Henderson.
Best bet: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-2,100 at DraftKings)
Outside the moneyline, there’s nothing else to look at or bet on concerning this one. We’ll have to stick to it and hope the unthinkable doesn’t happen to bust a weekend parlay.
