76ers vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: No Impeding Embiid

Normally by the time the trade deadline and the All-Star break are in shouting distance as they are now, there’s some separation at the top of the standings. Not so this time around, and with all the contenders bunched up and still with a chance to land the No. 1 overall seed, each game the top teams play against each other down the stretch of the regular season takes on ever greater importance. 

And so it is that two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics, play a game with massive seeding implications Wednesday, February 8 on ESPN.

Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Celtics believe the value lies with the Philadelphia moneyline for tonight’s contest.

76ers vs Celtics best odds

76ers vs Celtics picks and predictions

Tuesday night, we got to witness LeBron James break the all-time scoring record, and tonight, we get an absolute treat of a game between two of the NBA’s elite in the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics. It’s made all the sweeter that these teams both have a healthy rivalry with one another, as well as dueling MVP candidates in Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum. I’m expecting a high-scoring, tightly-contested game that ultimately favors the 76ers.

One reason is that I believe that, in Embiid, Philadelphia will have the best player on the court, who has ample reason to prove himself again before a national TV audience.

It would be naive to believe that Embiid is ignorant of how much his own MVP candidacy rose when he performed well against Nikola Jokic in their one-on-one showdown late last month. So, I’m expecting the best from Embiid tonight, on both ends, which was categorically not the version we got him the last time these two teams played all the way back on opening night when the Celtics won 126-117.

Indeed, the 76ers look like a completely different team from that disconnected squad we witnessed at the start of the year. James Harden has slotted in perfectly as an All-NBA caliber pass-first lead guard, and off-season addition De’Anthony Melton is having a career season both shooting the ball and working as an on-ball defensive disruptor.

That Philadelphia has the luxury of a player like Tyrese Maxey coming off the bench in a sixth-man role speaks to just how deep this team is on talent. After a slow start, the 76ers have steadily climbed the standings and statistical rankings all year long, and now sit fifth overall in point differential and third in overall record. 

Boston, of course, is no pushover. The Celts are still tops in overall point differential, and the only team ranked Top-5 on both sides of the ball per Cleaning the Glass. But their offense, which started off the season at a historic pace, has hit a snag in recent weeks.

The continued absence of Marcus Smart, who does so much the organize and set up his teammates, has been palpable. Despite their overall success, the Celtics' offense has been just league-average over the past two weeks. The knock-on effect of losing Smart is that Tatum has too much work to do on ball, which has seen him with a number low-efficiency, high-turnover games against the NBA's best.

Without Smart in the lineup, this game is a virtual pick ‘em to me. Getting 76ers at significant plus money makes this an easy bet.

My best bet: 76ers moneyline (+165)

76ers vs Celtics spread analysis

Despite dropping their most recent game against the New York Knicks, the 76ers have been impressive against the spread. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road, as well as 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. It’s a pattern they’ve kept up all year long, as they’re now up to a 30-22 ATS record for the overall season.

The Celtics, despite being the better team overall on the year, have been much more mercurial when it comes to covering. They’re a sterling 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 but have hit a lot more bumps in the road recently. They’re just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall, including 1-4 in their last five at home. Crucially they’re also 0-5 ATS when playing on a single day of rest, and Philadelphia is e 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. While I like Philadelphia against the spread, I do think the real value lies in tonight’s moneyline.

76ers vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

These teams have so much two-way talent, but on balance, these are better defensive teams than offensive ones. Those expectations are perhaps contributing to a strong series of trends toward Overs, as the expectation is that their defenses will lead to overall lower-scoring games. That just hasn't been the case for the most part for either team, with the Over going 16-6 in the 76ers' last 22 games, as well as 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Philadelphia also tends to get into shootouts with other elite teams like Boston, which has seen the Over go 5-0 in their most recent five games against teams with a winning percentage over .600. 

Even though Boston’s offense has been sputtering recently, the Over has still been cashing. The Over is 5-2 in the Celtics' last seven games against winning teams, and 4-1 in games against teams with a winning road record. 16-6 in the 76ers' last 22 overall. 228.5 is far too modest a Total for me to realistically consider the Under given the talent on both these teams, particularly as they have pressure points that can make the opponent uncomfortable. Boston’s big wings can attack Philadelphia’s smaller backcourt, and the 76ers can turn around and play bully ball with Embiid at will. I’d lean toward the Over.

76ers vs Celtics betting trend to know

76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Celtics.

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