The Cleveland Cavaliers bring a five-game win streak into tonight’s showdown with the Milwaukee Bucks in what could turn out to be a playoff preview.
Cleveland has padded its win total this month, feasting on a friendly schedule, and Donovan Mitchell led the way with 34 points on Monday in a comfortable victory over the Chicago Bulls.
Despite a sense that something still isn’t quite clicking in Milwaukee, the Bucks are sitting at 28-12. They’re coming off three straight wins, including an overtime thriller against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday with Damian Lillard sinking a game-winning 3-pointer.
Check out our Bucks vs. Cavaliers NBA picks and predictions as I dig into this NBA odds battle between Eastern Conference rivals on Wednesday, January 17.
Bucks vs Cavaliers odds
Bucks vs Cavaliers predictions
It was unquestionably Dame Time in the final seconds of Sunday’s 143-142 OT win against the Kings, with Damian Lillard rising up for a deep 3-pointer to break Sacramento hearts. He finished with 29 points, including five triples.
That kind of shot-making was exactly why the Milwaukee Bucks went all-in for Lillard, and I see him picking up where he left off in tonight’s matchup.
Milwaukee has had a couple of days to recover from the big minutes played over the weekend, and I like the Damian Lillard odds for him to get past the 24-point mark for the third straight game.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have leaned into wing-heavy lineups without Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, but there’s no natural fit to pester Lillard here, particularly with Giannis Antetokounmpo drawing so much attention in the paint.
After a strong December from 3-point range, Lillard began 2024 with some ice-cold outings from downtown. But he’s bounced back somewhat in his last three games, making 10 of his last 26 attempts.
The volume should be there for him once again tonight and his FG% goes up a tick on the road. That just adds to the case for the Over on his points prop as an attractive play tonight.
My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 24.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Bucks vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Damian Lillard Over 24.5 points
Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 rebounds
Bucks -3.5
While Donovan Mitchell’s scoring tends to grab the headlines, Jarrett Allen’s production has been just as critical in keeping the Cavaliers afloat amid all the injury woes — and that’s where I’m looking first to build out my SGP.
Allen’s rebounding has been elite over the past few weeks. He’s averaging 14 boards a game so far in January and his size will be critical here against a big Milwaukee frontcourt. Allen was a major factor when these teams squared off last month, finishing with 30 points and 12 boards.
I’m also picking the Bucks to take care of business against a wounded opponent. The hosts’ offense is going to be so dependent on Mitchell, and I like the visitors to cover a small spread with their more balanced lineup.
The Giannis matchup looms as a nightmare for Cleveland, with Allen set to be tied to Brook Lopez. That should leave mismatches for Antetokounmpo to exploit — and open looks for Lillard.
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Bucks vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
Though the Cavaliers have put together five wins in a row, there’s no disguising their key absentees nor how favorable their recent schedule has been. So it makes sense to see them as home underdogs tonight.
There could be a little cause for hesitation in jumping on board with the visitors, given the Bucks are only 9-8 on the road and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 outings overall. But they’ve already picked up a win in Cleveland this season, and their demolition of Boston last week was an impressive statement.
Plus, Khris Middleton is quietly playing his best basketball of the year, including a 24-point, 10-assist effort against the Golden State Warriors last week.
Despite Giannis and Mitchell putting up 34 points apiece in the teams’ prior meeting this season, the total from that late-December matchup still only got to 230.
Tonight’s Over/Under line sits around 236.5, and I’m leaning towards the Under again in this rematch, especially as the Cavaliers haven’t hit the Over in any of their last four games. In fact, the total in three of those four contests has been 213 or lower.
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Bucks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Cavaliers have only hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 40 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Cavaliers.
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Bucks vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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