Bucks vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Holiday's All-Star Candidacy Grows Stronger

While the Boston Celtics have a seemingly unassailable grasp on the number one spot, the battle for second place in the Eastern Conference is heating up, with the contending teams only separated by a handful of games. 

Matchups between direct competitors then take on greater relevance than ever as we approach the All-Star break, and tonight’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers is one with potentially critical seeding implications for both teams.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Cavaliers for Saturday, January 21 believe Jrue Holiday’s matchup advantages should prove decisive in securing a Milwaukee victory.

Bucks vs Cavaliers best odds

Bucks vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Saturday night’s matchup is dogged by a great deal of uncertainty. While the Cleveland Cavaliers announced that forward Dean Wade would be making his long-awaited return against the Bucks, there is no clear indication if Donovan Mitchell, who has continued to miss time with a groin strain, will be joining him. 

The Cavaliers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Golden State Warriors just last night, bad enough given the Warriors' road difficulties, but utterly confounding when you realize Golden State rested Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson. 

Muscle strains, and groin strains, in particular, are tricky. Both fellow shooting guard Devin Booker and Rudy Gobert came back too early from their groin strains just recently and paid a heavy price, so I’d expect the Cavaliers to slow play Spida’s return. 

Mitchell’s star has never burned brighter than this season, and his superb play has papered over some listless overall performances by the rest of the Cavalier's core players at times. Without him, Cleveland will struggle to score against this veteran Bucks group.

For Milwaukee, there is also hope, but not clarity, on the return of the Greek Freak. Giannis reportedly practiced with few restrictions on Friday, an encouraging sign that he’ll make a last-minute return to the lineup in time for Saturday’s game after missing four straight with knee soreness. 

It goes without saying that the return of the two-time MVP could prove decisive in this matchup. While the on/off splits aren’t as outlandish for Giannis as they’ve been in years past, there’s no doubt he could ratchet up the intensity for a game of this level of importance and turn the tide should he want to.

Even if Giannis doesn’t play, the Bucks do have a singular matchup advantage that should put them in position to win: Jrue Holiday. Holiday hasn’t made an All-Star team since his original selection as a 76er a decade ago, but he’s making a strong argument for his inclusion on this year’s team.

With both Giannis and Khris Middleton out, Jrue has been forced to shoulder some more of the on-ball creation duties and stepped up tremendously. Holiday is averaging 27 points and 8.8 assists in the last five games on 56.7% from the field and 45.9% from 3. He’s playing the role of a true point guard and primary scorer and proving he can do it quite well.

It’s no secret that Jrue’s greatest strength is…well, his strength. He’s probably the strongest guard in the NBA and has been so for most of his career. That strength is normally turned toward making life hell on every ballhandler misfortune enough to draw Holiday as a primary defender, but in this matchup against Cleveland, he should be able to leverage it into efficient offense too. 

While Dean Wade gives the Cavs a somewhat credible defensive matchup for Jrue in his limited minutes, he should thrive playing bully ball against Cleveland’s diminutive backcourt and thin wing rotation.

In a matchup with so many unknowns, I’m banking on the reliability of Holiday’s physical game to come through for Milwaukee on Saturday.

My best bet: Bucks moneyline (+105 at bet365)

Bucks vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The Bucks have hovered around the league’s second-best defense and one of the worst offenses. That’s changed recently though. The Bucks have been playing above average on both sides of the ball for the first sustained stretch of the season, including to the level of the NBA’s 12th-best offense over the past six games. 

That offensive improvement is more meaningful to me than the defensive decline, as the Bucks’ defense is a proven juggernaut, and their offensive struggles this season to date have been somewhat inexplicable. 

While Jrue Holiday is not going to shoot this well in perpetuity, I believe Milwaukee has found something sustainable by putting the ball in his hands. Joe Ingles, while struggling to shoot since his return, has had an impact on offensive flow with his passing ability.

The Cavaliers have probably played better than the Bucks recently overall, including going 17-7-1 against the spread in their last 25 home games. But they haven’t fared nearly as well against quality competition, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams. 

On top of that, they’re at about as big of a rest disadvantage as you’ll see in the NBA. While the Cavaliers played just last night, the Bucks haven’t suited up since Tuesday. Cleveland is just 4-10-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

Bucks vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

These are two of the three best defenses in the entire NBA, but neither has played to that level over the past two weeks. Still, they might find success against each other given their offensive deficiencies. 

The Bucks still have one of the NBA’s worst half-court offenses, and if Giannis is a late scratch, their transition game becomes much less reliable. Their role players have also continued to struggle shooting on the road, contributing to the Under cashing in 21 of the Bucks’ last 28 road games.

The Cavaliers also move at the league’s slowest pace and after playing the bell in last night’s loss to the Warriors, they’re going to be on dead legs late. Rather than let go of the rope on defense, they’re more likely to slow the game down and dig in on that end. The Under has cashed in four straight games with the Cavs playing on 0 days' rest.

The extra days off for Milwaukee might ultimately move the needle toward the Under at 221.5. While it’s not a frequent occurrence, the Under has cashed in five straight games when the Bucks play on three or more days rest like they are tonight.

Bucks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Cavaliers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days’ rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Cavaliers.

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