The Milwaukee Bucks have won four straight, and they’ll look to extend that streak when they visit Toyota Center tonight. The Houston Rockets dropped their last game with a 124-115 loss to the Jazz on Saturday and will look to get back on track at home.
My Bucks vs Rockets predictions expect a low-scoring affair in this inter-conference showdown.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Under on the point total and the Over on two combo props on Tuesday, February 25.
Bucks vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Under 226 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Rockets are 30-26-1 to the Over this season, but the team has hit the Over in just five of its last 10. Milwaukee is 28-29 to the Under, and the Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Under in six of 10. Neither defense has been excellent of late, but both teams have struggled to score consistently.
On the season, the Rockets rank fourth in defensive rating at 109.5, and the Bucks are 11th at 112.2. Over the last 10, Houston has fallen to 14th at 114.1, and Milwaukee is 12th at 113.7. Even though the defenses have faltered, both teams are still above the league average on that end of the court.
In that same span, the Rockets and Bucks are Bottom-10 offenses. Each team sports a 113.7 offensive rating on the season (T-13th). Over the last 10, the Rockets rank 24th at 110.3, and the Bucks rank 22nd at 111.4.
In that span, Houston has scored just 107.9 points per game, good for 26th. Milwaukee hasn’t been much better, averaging 112.6 points (21st).
Despite a record leaning to the Over this season, the Rockets are just 12-14-1 to the Under at home. The Bucks are 13-14 to the Under on the road, 4-7 as the road underdog, and 6-10 as the underdog overall. The Bucks have hit the Under in two straight away games, and the Rockets have hit the Under in five of their last seven at the Toyota Center. Milwaukee is 9-18 to the Under across their last 27 on the road.
The Under has hit in three of the last four head-to-head matchups between these teams, including the first meeting of the season in which the teams combined for just 201 points. I expect this matchup to hit the Under, and I like the relatively high 226 line.
Bucks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Under 226
Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points + assists
Alperen Sengun Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists
Damian Lillard has hit the Over on this line in 27 of 46 games this season, and he’s done it in five of his last six. He’s averaging 25 points and 7.3 dimes on the road, and he’s gone for at least 32 points + assists in 12 of 21 away from Fiserv Forum. Lillard posted 18 points and 10 assists in the Bucks’ first matchup with the Rockets
Alperen Sengun is averaging 34.5 PRA this season, but he’s been more productive over his last seven healthy games. In that span, he’s hit the Over four times, including two straight. Milwaukee’s defense has been quite generous to opposing centers over the last 15. In that span, the Bucks have surrendered 25.9 points, 17.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists to the position — good for a whopping 46.8 PRA.
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Bucks vs Rockets odds
Bucks vs Rockets live odds
Bucks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +4 (-110) | Houston -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +145 | Houston -170
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee is 26-30-1 ATS.
- Houston has covered in just two of its last 10.
- The Bucks have hit the Under in 29 of 57 games this season.
- The Bucks are 30-26-1 to the Over.
Bucks vs Rockets trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+7.70 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Bucks vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network, FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin |
Bucks vs Rockets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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