Saturday marks the first of a two-game mini set in the Big Apple between the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks with the two teams kicking off the Christmas Day slate to close it out.
The Bucks are surging, having won six straight and just three losses in their previous 19, vaulting them to a tie in wins with the East-leading Boston Celtics. They’re 2.5-point road favorites in the NBA odds.
New York is holding steady with a 16-11 mark, tied with Orlando for the fourth-best record in the conference. It’s won three of its last four to close out a five-game road trip.
My Bucks vs Knicks free NBA picks on December 23 are below, with a mini-spotlight on the lights-out play of Damian Lillard.
Bucks vs Knicks odds
Bucks vs Knicks predictions
Milwaukee was middling at 5-4 when the switch flicked, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard started figuring each other out, and the Bucks subsequently started destroying teams.
Dame has been a stellar sidekick to Giannis, averaging 26.2 points, to go along with seven assists, both marks just outside the Top-10 in the NBA.
It’s a little surprising, then, to see his scoring total against New York set to 26.5 points. Recency bias could have something to do with it, including Milwaukee’s 118-114 win over the Magic.
Lillard put up 24 points on 5-for-17 shooting in 35 minutes of work, a 29.4% clip. But previous to that, he had just put together the best three-game scoring stretch of the season, averaging 37.3 points on 57.1% shooting in wins over San Antonio, Houston and Detroit.
That’s not exactly a murderer’s row, but Lillard has done it to these same Knicks, twice.
The most recent was December 5, in Milwaukee's 146-122 evisceration of New York in the In-Season Tournament quarterfinal. Lillard finished with 28 points on 8-for-13 shooting, with three boards and seven assists.
Back on November 3, in a Bucks 110-105 win, Lillard dropped 30 on a low-volume 7-for-15 night.
The Knicks are seventh in points allowed in the NBA, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in both field goal shooting defense and 3-point shooting defense.
The Bucks shoot it at 49.8% from the field, which is second in the NBA. Expect to see Lillard light up MSG on Saturday.
My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Bucks vs Knicks same-game parlay
Lillard Over 26.5 points
Lillard Over 3.5 3-pointers
Lopez Over 2.5 blocks
The only thing better than brunch basketball is mixing in a same-game parlay, and we’ve got a couple to add to our current betting card.
Let’s stick with Lillard, who has been lighting it up from 3-point range of late. He’s shooting a blistering 46.9% from distance in December, a span of nine games. In those, he has gone Over his set total Saturday four straight games.
In the wider picture, Lillard has hit at least three triples in 14 of his last 18, so he’s right around that number the entire time.
Against the Knicks? He’s pretty comfortable spotting up. Last game he drilled 5-for-7 from distance, while hitting 4-for-7 in the earlier matchup.
We’ll wrap it up with one of Milwaukee’s key role players in Brook Lopez, who, along with Giannis, provides the backbone of a defense that is still a work in progress.
Lopez is doing his part swatting away what he can at the tin. It’s not always a success, as Milwaukee surrenders 52.5 paint points, which ranks 23rd in the Association, but he’s averaging 3.8 rejections this month, and has topped the 2.5-block total seven times in nine December outings.
One of those was against the Knicks, with three blocks, and he had a season-best eight rejections when these teams met in November.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bucks vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
For a time Friday, the Bucks could be found as high as 5.5-point favorites over the Knicks, but that number came crashing down when Antetokounmpo ended up on the injury report (foot).
While he’s probable for Saturday, the line hasn’t adjusted, leaving the spread at mostly 2.5 points.
The Knicks are just 2-6-2 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-heads with Milwaukee, though they’re 14-11-2 ATS on the season.
The Bucks are just 12-15-1 ATS overall, and 4-5-0 as a road favorite.
As for the total, this line has touched as high as 241 points, but hasn’t fallen over 239.5.
Books have to stay high for Bucks games, as the Over is 19-9-0 in Milwaukee games. New York has also seen the Over hit in 15 of 27 games this season.
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Bucks vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Bucks have won eight straight games against the Knicks. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Knicks.
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Bucks vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, December 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, MSG |
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