Celtics vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: How Hard Will Memphis Push?

Basketball bettors get a potential NBA Finals preview on the final day of the regular season when the Boston Celtics visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday.

The Grizzlies are locked into the No. 2 seed in the West but while their seeding won’t shift, the team can set a franchise record for wins and build valuable momentum before a near week-long hiatus ahead of the start of the playoffs.

The Celtics, on the other hand, need a win to either challenge for the No. 2 seed in the East or at least hold on to third.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Celtics at Grizzlies on April 10.

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Celtics vs Grizzlies odds

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Boston opened as a 1.5-point road favorite and has since jumped to -6.5 due to the Celtics’ heavier motivational factors in this regular-season finale and the fact Memphis is playing its second night of back-to-back games. The total opened at 227.5 and is now up to 228.5 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Grizzlies predictions

• Prediction: Grizzlies +6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Grizzlies TT Under 111.5 (-120)

Predictions made on 4/10/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Grizzlies game info

• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Sunday, April 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Celtics vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Celtics: Juwan Morgan F (Questionable), Nik Stauskas G (Questionable), Robert Williams C (Out).
Grizzlies: Santi Aldama C (Questionable), Jarrett Culver F (Questionable), Tyrell Terry G (Questionable), Killian Tillie F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Grizzlies.

Celtics vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The regular-season finale is always a tough one to handicap, as motivations are mixed.

Boston absolutely needs a win here to at least hold off Philadelphia and secure the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference. And after resting star Jayson Tatum in Milwaukee on Thursday – a game the Celtics almost won without him – Boston will have Tatum on the floor for Sunday’s showdown.

The big question is how much of Memphis will we get? The Grizzles’ postseason path is already written in ink, but milestones and momentum are on the line tonight. Head coach Taylor Jenkins has to walk the wire between intensity and insurance. He has to protect his stars like Ja Morant, who just returned from a knee injury last night, while also promoting a postseason mentality. 

Without those playoff plans mudding the waters, this would have been one of the best non-conference clashes of the season, with the Celtics’ stingy defense taking on the high-octane offensive motor of the Grizzlies. If the early line movement is any indication, however, bookmakers and bettors expect an all-out effort from Boston while Memphis may give us a half of battle-ready basketball.

Memphis is playing the second game of back-to-back outings, so the need to get key players floor time isn’t as great – but the risk of injury is. Morant played just under 27 minutes in a squash of New Orleans last night, looking fantastic with 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting. The rest of the starting five saw about 22 minutes of action and that could be the case again today.

Boston, on the other hand, would love to come out swinging and separate itself on the scoreboard early on, allowing the Celtics to sit their starters in the second half and also avoid any ill-timed injuries to key players before the postseason.

Boston is one of the best first-half teams in the NBA, leaning on its lockdown defense in those opening 24 minutes. In fact, the only other team that’s more impressive in those first two frames is Memphis, owning a 1H margin of +9.4 since the All-Star break.

Even if the starters do eventually take a seat, the Grizzlies’ reserves are a high-energy bunch that have kept this team competitive when standouts go down. Memphis’ bench leads the league in minutes (19.8) and contributes close to 39 points per game. 

The Griz have one of the best team dynamics in the league and the reserves would relish the opportunity to give the starters rest while also chasing franchise history against a high-level team like the Celtics. Memphis is a feisty underdog, having gone 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS when catching five or more points this season.

This spread opened Memphis +1.5 and has since jumped as much as five points to +6.5 with the expectations that Memphis will pack it in for postseason planning. I think the Grizzlies can do that as well as cover this inflated spread on the fighting spirit of their support staff.

Prediction: Grizzlies +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings) 

Over/Under analysis

Home is where the Grizzlies’ heart is, at least when it comes to lighting up the scoreboard. Since the break, Memphis is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS inside the FedExForum, posting a league-high 123.3 offensive rating and an average of 127 points per game in those home stands.

That output will be tempered with Memphis potentially limiting starters and facing Boston’s defense, which owns the second-highest advanced defensive rating since the break, behind only… Memphis. These two teams are very much cut from the same cloth, promoting plenty of offensive pop but when the rubber hits the road: defense is the decider.

As good as the Grizzlies’ reserves are, they aren’t going to outgun a full-strength and motivated Celtics squad, so expect an intense team effort on the defensive end from Memphis – whoever is getting the minutes. As good as the team’s offense has been at home in those past 10 games, the defense has been just as sharp, touting a defensive rating of 104.7.

On offense, the Grizzlies want to get out and run with the basketball, owning a place among the top transition attacks in the league. Boston, however, has been superb at slowing down those tempo teams, limiting transition offenses to a mere 1.08 points per possession and a scoring frequency of just 49.3% (sixth lowest). 

If these teams are trying to prep for the postseason, this game could have playoff-like intensity – at least on the defensive end of the floor.

Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best bet

In a game like this, with so many moving pieces and mixed motivational factors, it’s tough to pinpoint a true “best bet”. Hell, bookmakers aren’t giving us much to choose from at the time of this writing, with those unknowns stalling most of the alternative offerings from opening.

Given our narrative, perhaps the safest play is to take the Grizzlies' team total Under. 

Boston is in must-win mode regardless of what goes on in the Milwaukee game before this contest (3:30 p.m. ET) and with Philadelphia facing Detroit at the same time (76ers -13 at 7 p.m. ET). But should the Bucks lose at Cleveland in the afternoon, the Celtics could get a shot in the arm as they’ll have a chance at the No. 2 seed with a victory over the Grizzlies.

I don’t expect Memphis to give the starting five more than a half of basketball, as this matchup means diddly to the West seeding. And while the bench plays with passion, whatever energy that’s left in this second game of back-to-back outings will be spent on the defensive end. 

The Celtics have staked their claim in the East on the back of their defense and have the makeup to put the breaks on the Grizzlies’ up-tempo approach. Boston has checked five of its last eight opponents to less than 112 points in regulation and gives up an average of just 105.1 points per game on the road. 

Pick: Grizzlies team total Under 111.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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