The Miami Heat will try to break a two-game losing streak as they host the floundering Philadelphia 76ers in an Eastern Conference matchup tonight.
We’ve already seen Miami shut down Philadelphia three times this season, and I’ll be taking the Under again in my 76ers vs. Heat predictions below.
Let’s look at how bettors should approach this matchup in my free NBA picks for Monday, April 7.
76ers vs Heat prediction
My best bet: Under 214 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s no secret the Philadelphia 76ers aren’t even coming close to winning games anymore this season. Philadelphia comes into tonight’s game on an 11-game losing streak, and they may end the year without picking up another victory.
While this is a predictable outcome of sitting Joel Embiid, Paul George, and now Tyrese Maxey for the remainder of the year, the biggest problems for Philadelphia have come on the offensive end.
While the Sixers haven’t trended strongly towards the Under as of late, that’s only because sportsbooks have quickly lowered their totals — and because some opponents have been able to run up the score on the underpowered lineup they’re running out each night.
While the 76ers have averaged a poor 109.6 ppg for the season, that number has come down further during the 11-game losing streak. Philadelphia is putting up just 106.9 ppg over its last 10 games, and has been held below 100 points thrice during that stretch.
One of those games came against the Miami Heat, when they beat the Sixers 118-95 on March 29. The Heat have a Top-10 defensive rating (112.1), and have allowed a paltry 103.1 ppg over their last nine games.
That’s been critical to Miami staying in the playoff race, as this is a relatively poor offensive team. The Heat average only 109.9 ppg; outside of Tyler Herro (23.9 ppg), this team lacks consistent scoring threats since parting ways with Jimmy Butler.
Sportsbooks know all this, which is why we have such a low total on tonight’s game. Yet the number still doesn’t fully reflect what we’ve seen from these two teams.
The Heat and the 76ers are among the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, another factor that keeps scoring down when they play each other.
In three games against each other this year, Miami and Philadelphia have yet to play to a total of more than 213 points. In their November 18 contest, they combined for just 195 points, easily hitting the Under on a 212.5 total — and that was arguably when these teams had more offensive firepower available.
All three games hit the Under, and I’m backing that to happen again tonight.
76ers vs Heat same-game parlay
Under 214.5
Heat -12.5
Lonnie Walker IV Under 13.5 points
Miami has won by more than 15 points in two of the three meetings between the teams this year, and it’s hard to count on the 76ers to compete with anyone right now.
While Lonnie Walker has been getting more run lately, he’s not one of the primary scorers, even on this depleted roster, which mostly goes to Quentin Grimes to score points.
Walker has come in Under tonight’s total in six of his last eight games, and facing a Heat team that doesn’t give up many points, he’ll struggle to score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
76ers vs Heat odds
76ers vs Heat live odds
76ers vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +12.5 | Miami -12.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +550 | Miami -800
- Over/Under: Over 213.5 | Under 213.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
76ers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The 76ers have put up a 27-51 record against the spread this season, while the Heat have gone 37-40-1 ATS on the year.
- Miami is 3-0 both straight up and ATS against Philadelphia so far this season.
- The Over has a 45-31-2 record when the 76ers have played this season, and also has a slight 40-38 edge in Heat games this year.
- Philadelphia has played to an average total of 225.4 ppg on the season, while Miami has averaged 219.8 ppg.
76ers vs Heat trend
The Under is 3-0 in the three games between Miami and Philadelphia this season. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.
How to watch 76ers vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, 4-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Philadelphia, FDSN-Sun |
76ers vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
