Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Murray Stuffs Stat Sheet Again

The Atlanta Hawks fight for their playoff lives against the Boston Celtics Friday night, trying to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever crawled out of.

Atlanta was thoroughly pummeled in Game 1, and despite a less-pitiful showing in Game 2, is still considered an easy out for Boston as the series swings to the Peachtree State.

Let's see if the ATL offers up anything better for the underdogs as I break down my Celtics vs. Hawks NBA picks and predictions for April 21.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 best odds

Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 picks and predictions

The Celtics' mission on defense through the first two games has been fairly clear: make Trae Young's life miserable.

Not only do Boston's bigger, physical guards (two of whom are absolutely elite defenders) match up well with Young, but Joe Mazzulla's scheme of aggressively fronting him on the perimeter and counting on Young to make bad decisions under pressure is working to a T. 

Through two games, Young's averaging just 20 points on 35% from the field (and a horrendous 23% from long range), and his 1.4:1 assist-turnover ratio is an equally-large eyesore. 

With their offense's hub severely neutered, the Hawks have scored a paltry average of 102.5 ppg in this series so far and lost both games by double-digits, so it's highly unlikely the Celtics — who hold pretty much all the cards in this matchup — adjust their gameplan much. 

As such, we've seen more of Dejounte Murray, which is logical against the Celtics' bevy of stronger, bigger perimeter defenders. While Young's a relative pipsqueak at 6-foot-1, Murray's 6-foot-5 and plays bigger than his size in a lot of ways. He's taken advantage of the Celtics' attention on Young, becoming the Hawks' de-facto go-to scorer, outshooting Trae 49-40 so far in the series.

Murray's also one of the league's best stat-stuffers and is seeing a points + rebounds + assists total of just 31.5 tonight, suggesting a huge regression from the 38 he put up in Game 1, following up with 41 in Game 2. And while Wednesday's performance was fueled by some likely-unsustainable 3-point numbers, there's plenty of reason to think he'll top this total.

First is the Hawks' home/away pace split, which skyrockets from 11th on the road to second at home over the regular season. In case you think Quin Snyder's arrival might've changed that, the gap is actually more dramatic — from 15th to first — since he was hired. And Atlanta sure as all hell is not winning this game with its defense, so don't count on that trend to suddenly shift. 

Murray, conversely, has virtually identical road and home stat splits, so if he's in a groove and feeling confident with what this Celtics defense is giving him, he's likely to keep that rhythm at State Farm Arena. 

And it makes sense for Atlanta to keep attacking with the lead guard who's by far the more competent of their two starting PGs right now. Both Young's passes and shot selection have been troubling in this series, with Murray being more dependable and efficient as both a scorer and playmaker.

Even if Trae gets hot and we see some regression in Dejounte's usage, this line suggests such a decline that it can't be passed up, hardly juiced at -115. 

My best bet: Dejounte Murray Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 spread analysis

Atlanta's looked thoroughly outclassed so far in this series, trailing by double-digits for the vast majority of the first two games. The Hawks +5.5 spread seems to give them serious homecourt credit, and I'm skeptical that it's perhaps too much. 

ATL's only even remote competence is on offense. An offense that runs through Young, and one he looks completely lost in. That might be all I really need for this handicap. 

Quin Snyder might be a respected veteran coach who cooked up some great regular-season systems in Utah, but he hasn't proven himself as some kind of master playoff tactician — his Jazz teams flamed out annually in the postseason. 

Here, he has an even more fundamentally-flawed roster, with painfully little spacing (between accuracy, shot selection, and the points he absolutely hemorrhages in transition defending off his own misses, Young might be the NBA's single most overrated shooter), and only a month's worth of rapport and ability to experiment with lineups. It's highly unlikely an adjustment gets made that suddenly spins this in Atlanta's favor. 

The Hawks lost both games in this series by 13 points, and if not for garbage-time relent by the Celtics in Game 1, it would've been 20 or more. So, unless you want to give the Hawks credit for being, like, 10+ points better at home (I, personally, do not), lay the chalk here.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 Over/Under analysis

I'd avoid the total in this game. Point blank. 

It opened at 227.5 and is climbing (228.5 at most books as of Friday afternoon), despite Games 1 and 2 finishing with paltry totals of 211 and 215.

We noted Atlanta's penchant for faster play at home above, and do agree that its offense might have hit rock bottom earlier in this series, but the Celtics have shown to be so capable of disrupting the Hawks' system, that it's very tough to back such inflation in the total just because of a venue shift.

This is a Hawks team that's roundly underachieved two years in a row, had a coach fired midseason, has heard trade rumors swirl around the entire roster (yes, even Young), and shouldn't be discounted to roll over and die against a Celtics squad that's clearly a cut above.

Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Celtics have covered the spread in six straight games, while the Hawks have failed to cover in four straight. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Hawks.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 3 game info

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