It’s a heavyweight prime-time clash as the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder collide at TD Garden — and these teams still top the list of NBA title favorites.
Boston is on a five-game winning run but hasn’t faced a defense like this smothering OKC unit, and my Thunder vs Celtics predictions expect the visitors to take this one right to the wire.
Check out my NBA picks and betting nuggets for a March 12 battle that will tell us more about OKC’s championship pedigree.
Thunder vs Celtics prediction
My best bet: Thunder +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It feels borderline disrespectful to label this contest as an NBA Finals preview just a day after the Cleveland Cavaliers notched their second 15-game win streak of the season, but that’s where we are as the Oklahoma City Thunder face their latest ‘prove it’ moment.
Though the Thunder have left the rest of the West in the dust, there’s still some nagging noise over whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has enough help around him to win four playoff rounds. It’s time to silence that once and for all.
I like the visitors in this spot against a Boston Celtics team that’s had star men in and out of the lineup lately. While Jayson Tatum is questionable but expected to play, Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful.
This game feels too close to call, so a 3.5-point spread with the underdog Thunder feels like good value. OKC’s feisty wing defenders should be in the mood to wreak havoc, and I see Chet Holmgren stepping up as the No. 2 scorer with Jalen Williams sidelined. Plus, the Thunder have been against-the-spread wizards all year — 42-22-4 ATS through 68 contests — while the Celtics are just 15-19 ATS at home this season.
OKC had its seven-game streak snapped by the Denver Nuggets on Monday, but the offense continues to hum. The visitors have scored 127 points or more in eight of their last 10 outings, and few teams can rival their bench depth.
With Boston’s struggles to put teams away at TD Garden, I’m counting on a relentless Thunder squad to pass this test.
Thunder vs Celtics same-game parlay
Thunder +3.5
Derrick White Over 20.5 points + assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
The Celtics’ starting lineup has been in flux for most of the season, but Derrick White remains a steadying presence, playing in 62 of the team’s 65 contests.
He’s capable of getting past 20.5 just as a scorer, as we saw in his 41-point masterpiece against the Portland Trail Blazers last week, and he’s dished five or more dimes in six of his past nine games. While White has cooled off from downtown in his past three outings (6-for-26), he went 14-for-28 from downtown in his first two games this month and knocked down his triples at a 46% clip in February.
At the other end of the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander will get even more attention from defenses without Williams alongside him, and that will shift him into playmaking mode more often tonight to combat Boston traps and double teams.
He’s posted seven or more assists in four of his last five games, and the Thunder’s role players — including Cason Wallace, Lu Dort and Alex Caruso — have shown they can punish teams for overcommitting on the MVP frontrunner.
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Thunder vs Celtics odds
Thunder vs Celtics live odds
Thunder vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +4.5 (-110) | Boston -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +155 | Boston -185
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder are road underdogs here, but they’ve been formidable on their travels all year, with a 24-7 mark.
- OKC has hit the 1Q moneyline in 29 of its past 38 games away from Paycom Center.
- While the Over has been a winning ticket in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams, the defenses were on top in OKC’s 105-92 victory in January.
- The team total Under is 48-23 in the Celtics’ last 71 contests, but the team total Over is 32-15 in the Thunder’s past 47 games.
Thunder vs Celtics trend
The Thunder have cashed in the Over in 26 of their last 38 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Celtics.
How to watch Thunder vs Celtics
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Celtics latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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