The Milwaukee Bucks have dropped two straight, and the Indiana Pacers have dropped three, so something’s got to give when these Central Division foes clash at Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight.
My Bucks vs Pacers predictions expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a monster night in a dominant matchup.
Read my NBA picks for March 11 to find out.
Bucks vs Pacers prediction
My best bet
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 50.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Giannis Antetokounmpo is enjoying another monster season behind averages of 30.9 points, 12 rebounds and 5.8 assists.
He’s putting up 48.7 PRA per game, which is shy of tonight’s combo line. Fortunately, he’s facing a team he’s dominated over the last five seasons.
Since 2020-21, Antetokounmpo has averaged 55.8 PRA against Indiana in 15 matchups. His 36.6 points are second-most against any opponent, his 12.7 rebounds are third-most, and his 6.5 assists are seventh-most.
Since 2022-23, he’s been even better, averaging 38.2 points, 12.5 rebounds and 6.6 dimes across 10 matchups. That includes two triple-doubles and scoring performances of 54 and a career-high 64. Over the last five seasons, Antetokounmpo has five games with at least 40 points and three with at least 50 against the Pacers.
The Greek Freak is typically better at home than on the road, but he’s excelled at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since 2020-21. Antetokounmpo has averaged 35.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 6.5 assists in eight road tilts with the Indiana Pacers in that span. He hit the Over in four of those while averaging 54.9 PRA.
Though Giannis has hit the Over on this line in just 19 of 51 games this season, he’s done so in two of his last three, and I expect him to find success against Indiana yet again. To sweeten an already favorable matchup, the Pacers have allowed the second-most points (24.3) and fifth-most rebounds (10.9) to PF this season.
As if that weren’t enough, Antetokounmpo has averaged 54.6 PRA against Central Division opponents and hit the Over in five of nine matchups this season.
There’s no team that Antetokounmpo plays as well as the Pacers, and I’m hammering the Over on this combo line.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 50.5 points+rebounds+assists
Over 234
Bucks moneyline
The head-to-head matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Pacers has gone Over in three straight and six of the last seven. Indiana is 16-13 to the Over at home and 6-2 to the Over as the home underdog.
Milwaukee is 15-15 on the road and 11-7 as the road favorite. The Pacers are just 2-4 to the Under across their last six, but the Bucks are 5-1. Since the All-Star break, these teams have combined to average 234.7 points.
The Bucks have won and covered both matchups with the Pacers this season, but Indiana had their number last season.
The Bucks are just 12-18 ATS on the road and 7-11 as the road favorite. The Pacers are 15-13-1 at home and 3-5 as the home favorite. I’m inclined to take Milwaukee and the points, but the trends favor Indiana ATS, and this is a division game between familiar opponents.
The safer bet is taking Milwaukee to win outright.
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Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -3 | Indiana +3
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -150 | Indiana +125
- Over/Under: Over 234 | Under 234
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee is 30-32-2 ATS this season.
- Indiana has covered in two of its last six games.
- The Bucks have hit the Over in five of their last six.
- The Pacers are 33-28-2 to the Over this season.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
The Pacers are 33-28-2 to the Over this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
How to watch Bucks vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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