The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies face off for a rematch at FedExForum on Friday night.
These teams played each other in Memphis on Wednesday, with the Clippers pulling off the upset as 2-point pups. Despite that victory, they are even bigger underdogs this time around, with NBA betting lines opening with the Grizzlies at -5.
Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Grizzlies on March 31.
Clippers vs Grizzlies best odds
Clippers vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
The Grizzlies have been missing starting center Steven Adams since the beginning of the month and also lost reserve big man Brandon Clarke to a season-ending injury. That's created a spot in the starting lineup for Xavier Tillman, who has been playing extremely well.
Tillman has logged more than 30 minutes in his last three games and had at least 15 points and eight rebounds in each of those contests. While his 80% shooting over that span isn't sustainable long term, he doesn't need to knock down shots at that efficiency to go Over his modest points total of 9.5 today.
With Tillman also being active on the glass and the Clippers expected to play without big man Marcus Morris for the third-straight game, I'm backing him on his points and rebounds prop.
My best bet: Xavier Tillman Over 16.5 points + rebounds (-106)
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Clippers vs Grizzlies spread analysis
The spread between these teams on Wednesday actually opened with Memphis as 4.5-point chalk but saw plenty of movement before tipoff with both teams having late scratches. The Clippers scratched Kawhi Leonard for personal reasons while the Grizz sat Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Leonard took part in the shootaround today, while the three Memphis players are also expected to return.
The Grizzlies should be closer to full strength today and have gone a sizzling 33-6 at home with an NBA-best net rating of +10.6. That said, it's tough to gauge their motivation at this point in the regular season with a second or third-place finish in the Western Conference virtually assured.
Scratching three key players due to "soreness" last night sends the message that they are more concerned with players being well-rested before the playoffs, which makes it tough to lay the points tonight — especially against a Clippers side that's in the middle of a tight battle for postseason positioning.
The Clippers have gone 30-17 with a net rating of +4.2 when Leonard suits up this season. While Paul George is still sidelined, Norman Powell returned to the lineup on Wednesday, and although he looked a bit rusty after an 11-game absence, he should be more effective tonight.
Russell Westbrook carried the Clips to a 141-132 victory in that contest. The usually inefficient Westbrook actually went 13-18 from the field for 36 points and dropped 10 dimes with just two turnovers. Memphis had some strong offensive performances of its own but allowing the Clips to shoot 62% of the field was too much to overcome.
If Westbrook, Powell, and Bones Hyland can continue to play well around Leonard, the Clips could be live dogs again.
Clippers vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis
These teams totaled a whopping 273 points on Wednesday, which has resulted in the O/U ticking up from 231.5 to 235.5 for the rematch.
That said, while both sides should have some of their best scorers back in the lineup, the addition of Leonard and Jackson will significantly improve both teams on the defensive end of the floor.
One problem that the Clippers had in that previous meeting was that they looked out of control on the fast break and threw away the ball at times. They'll likely slow things down a bit with Leonard back in the fold and he'll bring his length and intensity to lock down on the wing.
Keep in mind that the Grizzlies have the lowest opponent field goal percentage in the league (45.2%) while ranking second in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Clippers are limiting foes to 111.9 ppg when Kawhi suits up.
Clippers vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these Western Conference foes. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Grizzlies.
Clippers vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, March 31, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally SoCal, Bally Southeast |
